From: Bryon Daly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>Yes, he should switch boxes. Although I know the answer, I've never understood it.
Reply-To: Killer Bs Discussion <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Brin List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Another prisoner's dilemma (the Monty Hall question)
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 15:40:07 -0500
This isn't really a puzzler like the last one, but I find the answer interesting...
The warder comes to a prisoner's cell with 3 boxes and says: "I've placed a
key in one of these 3 boxes. If you can pick the box it is in, you may go free".
The prisoner picks a box, then the warden selects a different one, opens it to
reveal it is empty, and then says: "Would you like to switch your chosen box
with the remaining unopened box?".
You can assume the warden would have offered the switch regardless of
which box the prisoner had chosen (ie: key or not). Should the prisoner
switch boxes? What are his odds of freedom if he does?
-Bry
There is a 1/3 probability of getting the key with the box you have. After the warden shows you his box is empty, the probability of it being in the other box becomes 2/3. What I don't understand is why it doesn't now become 1/2.
Perhaps with that as a starting point, someone could provide a more understandable explanation?
Jon
GSV Sadistical Analysis
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