--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > What happens when Saddam launches missiles filled with > VX at Israel? Israel is unlikely to fail to defend > itself this time, as it did in 1991, under any > circumstancse. Israel is likely to have a > particularly strong reaction to poison gas. I would > rate the chances that they would not retaliate against > such a launch in some way to approach zero. When they > do so, the Arab world is likely to go nuts. To put it > mildly. So, what do people on the list think Israel > should do? And what should the US do to try and > contain it?
O.k. call me an eternal optimist, but here are my thoughts: 1) I'm not at all sure that Israel retaliates. Israel knows that Saddam is going to get his can of whoop-ass from the United States. I don't know why Sharon will necessarilly decide tht he *must* retaliate. 2) Retaliating may be better than not-retaliating. The Arab culture actually bears a lot of similarity to the culture of schoolyard bullys. Thus, if someone takes your lunch money, and you don't retaliate, you sort of encourage the impression that you are weak and a ripe target for lunch money-stealing tomorrow. Indeed, Osama bin Laden cited out tepid response to the 1st WTC bombing, the Khobar towers bombing, the double-embassy bombing, and the bombing of the USS Cole as reason to believe that the US would again act weakly after the destruction of the World Trade Center, especially with the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud leaving the Afghan resistance in shambles. Thus, if Israel is struck by chemical weapons, and then chooses not to retaliate, I think that it may influence Arab opinion of Israel, highly negatively. 3) Thus, backing away from my eternal optimism for a moment, this leaves Israel with no good options. Fail to respond to an attack, and the Arab world will deride you as weaklings. Respond, however, and the Arab world becomes incensed. But wait, the Arab world will become incensed if Israel responds to a chemical attack? I know that this is virtually universally accepted wisdom, and thus may well be true (leaving Israel with no good options), part of me wonders if this isn't awfully demeaning of the Arab people - to consider them so utterly depraved and racist, that such an act will "enflame them." 4) I am very interested to see what effect all of this has on the Palestine situation. Although the connections between Hussein and Al Qaeda are tenuous, at best, Hussein is one of the primary funders of Palestinian murderers. With much less funding for Palestinian murder campaigns, we may finally start to break the cycle of violence. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
