I wrote:
> As a Canadian, I really don't care one way or the other about President
> Bush. He's just a name on the news, really. But this "Bush Doctrine" of
> pre-emptive warfare goes against everything I believe, and it really
> frightens me that a gigantic nation like the United States would even
> seriously contemplate such a thing, much less actually go to war on it.


Dan M. wrote:
> > I'm curious about this.  Lets give a simple example, N. Korea without
the
> > ability to kill hundreds of thousands in Seoul.  Would it have been
wrong
> > to stop their development of nuclear weapons and ICBMs?  Why is stopping
> > them more frightening than not stopping them?


There's certainly nothing wrong with attempting to stop NK's development of
nuclear weapons - and the US did in fact try to stop their development - by
peaceful means. And until the current crisis, that seemed to be working. Now
they say they still have some nuclear bombs, and they never fully disarmed.
But with the US (apparently) preoccupied with Iraq, it looks like Kim Jong
Il is trying to aggravate the crisis by making threatening gestures and
beginning his nuclear arms program again. So the pre-emptive doctrine has
already made international relations worse with one country by invading
another. It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy, pushing rougue nations
towards further aggression because they have nothing left to lose.

I can't predict how history would have happened differently if the US
(alone, or with a "coalition") had invaded North Korea in the seventies or
eighties or nineties to stop its nuclear weapons program - but, imo, the
situation probably wouldn't have improved. That's because there's no such
thing as a simple example - invading North Korea would destabilize all of
Southeast Asia, upsetting the balance of power there, kill an unknown number
of people, and saddle the US with a costly satrapy that would drain its
military and economic resources at a time when many other nations (like
China, perhaps) would take advantage of the situation by making aggressive
moves of their own. One preventive conflict might lead to many more.

But would North Korea be a threat if no one invaded it? Maybe, but then
again, maybe not. Almost certainly not if NK wasn't so isolated. I think the
better path to follow is economic and political engagement. If Kim Jong Il's
government were fully integrated into the world economy the way China is,
they would have far less reason to use nuclear weapons or go to war at all.
And the same would have true for Saddam's Iraq. Countries that benefit from
the status quo have to think very hard before upsetting it.

Kevn Street

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