----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, November 10, 2003 10:14 AM
Subject: Re: [L3] RE: religious/political question

>
> Do you really think that anyone in Iraq cares if we
> involved the UN, or about WMDs, for that matter?

Well, there is a poll that I've seen  that shows the majority of the people
in Iraq see the US , on balance, being a negative influence on Iraq over
the next 5 years, while the UN is preceived as being a positive influence.
Another poll shows the number that view the US as liberators has fallen
from 46% to about 16%, with two thirds now viewing the US as an occupying
force.  That same poll does show that most people do not want the US to up
and leave,  so the message is a bit mixed, but the trends are not very
encouraging.

As far as WMDs are concerned, its reasonable to assume that the direct
effect of the non-observance of these weapons, and the conclusions that
Hussein really didn't have significant WMD when the US overthrew him on the
opinion of the people of Iraq was minimal.  However, I think that the
atmosphere we would be operating in if we did prove that Hussein was well
on his way towards developing an atomic bomb, had massive stockpiles of
very dangerous chemical and biological weapons, and had significant
delivery mechanisms, would be far different.

I don't think the US government was wrong in thinking that a true
multi-national peacekeeping force, with tens of thousands of troops from
non-Anglo, non-European countries would be very helpful in selling the
forces there as a temporary stabilizing entity instead of an American
occupation force.  I think that the possibility of India and Pakistan
contributing troops would have been far greater if the WMD were as
prevalent as the administration stated they were before the war.

But, that's not where we are.  As far as I can tell from the opinion polls
and other reports, the opinion of the US held by the people of Iraq is
souring.  We are being seen less as liberators and more as foreign
occupiers.  While the idea that people would welcome anyone who delivered
them from a tyrant with open arms sounds extremely logical; things can
often be more complex than this.  For example, intervention in abusive
families often/usually results in the victims of the abuse feeling
resentment and anger towards the outside agency that intervenes.  The shame
of needing outside intervention to handle an internal matter can be very
high.  Different people/countries can handle that type of shame in
different manners. Everything that I've seen indicates that people in that
region are very concerned with face, and are willing to lie through their
teeth in order to preserve face.

I think the US is now in a race between their work to develop a stable
representative government and autonomous security force and the
deterioration of public opinion in Iraq.  I don't think that its
inconceivable that, if we fail to make much progress in the next 6-12
months, that the fight between US soldiers and those opposing us will be
changed, in the minds of people, from a fight between the US and the
supporters of a brutal regime to a fight between occupiers and local
resistance fighters.

Dan M.



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