As a preamble, let me recount that I supported the military action in Afghanistan beforehand because I thought we could not let Al Quida a free pass after 9-11 and leaned against the military action in Iraq because I thought that
1) There was no clear and present danger to the US presented by Iraq, even thought I was fairly sure > > In fairness, we have accomplished some very important strategic objective > in both Afghanistan and Iraq: > > 1) Al Qaeda can no longer train operatives with impunity in Afghanistan I'll agree that's a plus; and its one of the reasons I supported going to war in Afghanistan. > 2) We have liberated 28 million oppressed Afghans That overstates the case. We have removed a repressive government in Afghanistan and have replaced the rule in the capital with a much better government. The rest of the country, as far as I can tell, is ruled by local power brokers. We make sure there are limits to their use of force. I wouldn't argue against the idea that the local power brokers are an improvement over the Taliban. But, I consider real liberation the point where we can hand over control of the country (including responsibility for security) to a government that is as good as the government of, say, Jordan. > 3) Al Qaeda's operational capacity has apparently taken a severe blow, >based upon their recent concentration on "soft" targets in the developing world > instead of "hard" targets in Europe and the United States > 4) Saddam Hussein is no longer a threat to develop nuclear weapons, and > thus be able to blackmail the US, Saudi Arabia (ie the world's oil supply, > and Israel) There is no evidence that he made any moves towards developing a nuclear weapon. Indeed, all the evidence points to him being significantly closer to having a A-bomb in 1991 than 2003. But, while we were looking the other way, N. Korea crossed what everyone called a red line. No one really knows how much more plutonium they have processed this year. > 5) US troops are no longer stationed in Saudi Arabia, eliminating a primary > grievance used by Al Qaeda to recruit operatives As long as the US is occupying Iraq, Al Qaeda will have an even bigger grievance. If it is clear that an independent Iraq government exists, then us having a base there will not be a problem, but we are far away from that. > 6) 38 million oppressed Iraqis have been liberated. I'll agree fully that the average person in Iraq is better off now than a year ago. But, the overwhelming majority in Iraq sees the US as an occupier, not a liberator. And, their opinion of us, as measured in polls, is rapidly deteriorating. > Has this solved all of our problems? That wasn't the benchmark used by most people. The real question is whether the long losses to the US from invasion outweigh the long term gains of the people of Iraq. My guess/fear is that, 5 years from now, we will find ourselves much more isolated from traditional allies (as it stands we are tied with N. Korea and Iran in an European opinion poll concerning which country is the greatest danger to the world.), at odds with a dictatorship in Iraq that is probably better than Hussein, and with an feeling of failure. Even CIA analysis indicates that we are risking a turning point in Iraq; where the forces fighting the US will be viewed less as old Bathists trying to regain power and more as freedom fighters against foreign occupiers. If this happens, things could get very nasty. As it stands, the administration has hinted at the start of the retreat from Iraq, saying we the number of troops needed will be less...so we won't need to rotate nearly as many troops in as we are rotating out. My objection to going to war in Iraq was that we were not prepared to win the peace. Events of the last 6 months have reinforced that opinion. My suggestion was for us to work harder to win the peace in Afghanistan before trying Iraq. As it stands, Afghanistan will get less aid in 3 years than Iraq in 1, even though the administration claimed that simply using Iraq oil income for the people of Iraq would provide most of the funds needed to rebuild Iraq. My guess is that we will be mostly out of there within a year, and then we will have to cross our fingers concerning the results. My one sigma upside expectations is another Saudi Arabia. My mean expectations is something close to Iran. My one sigma downside is chaos. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
