Trent Shipley wrote: > >> I have done some estimates on this. From data from GURPS Uplift and >> from Contacting Aliens, I estimate: >> >> * about 2 million populated planets at each time > > Across how many galaxies? > All five of them.
> (Note that for the 1000KY +- Contact Galaxy 4 was > fallow, so it doesn't matter. The real question is whether the GIM > populates 2M planets in Galaxy 2 or throughout GIM controled space.) > My estimate includes all five. Of course, as in Drake's equation, each factor has an error from 10% to 900% :-) >> * about 10 planets per race >> * about 200,000 races > > I'll take this on faith, with the qualification that 200K O-2 races is > somwhat inconvenient for writers. > Yep :-) >> Most of those species would be doing "nothing", except about >> * 10% being uplifted >> * 10% in the 100,000-year period of indenture >> * 10% uplifting a pre-sentient race >> * 10% being served by an indentured client > > Your model seems to be > pre-uplift (stage 0) > -> uplifting client (stages 1 to 4?) > -> indentured client (stage 5?) > Since stage has the same population, and assuming mortality is minimal, > each stage must take the same amount of time. > Yes: the period where a species is under uplift may vary a lot, but it's said somewhere that the mean [median?] is 100k. And the period of indenture is explicitly stated as 100k. > > My mental model is > pre-uplift (stage 0) > -> uplifting clients, this includes indenture (stages 1-5) > Ok, but why do you join the indenture period with the uplift period? They are quite distinct phases. > The pre-uplift stage goes fast but has high "mortality" as the GUI denies > claims or proposed projects. It is also irrelevant. We do not worry about > pre-clients in this "census". > Yes :-) > The mean term for uplift/indenture combined is 100KY > No!!! The uplift process can be long or short, but the indenture period is fixed. > We approximate the rate of uplift as an average of 1.1 client per mature > species. (The [fictional] real rate has to include non-reproducers and > mortality and some growth in the number of citizen species it must be > between 1.01 and 1.2.) Clients are not fairly distributed. > > Lets assume 11% of all O-2 citizens are minors. (1% of these are going to > get 'lost') > > Note this seems to imply that the mean life expectancy for an O-2 citizen > race is about 1,000,000 years. > This 1 My is explicitly stated in Heaven's Reach. > This is a bit short for purposes of > continuity with the fiction. If you want the mean life expectency between > the start of uplift and passing-on to be 10MY then you need to divide by > 10, so only 1.1% of all O-2 citizens would be minors. > But 10 My is too much for an average. Notice that everybody expects the Buyur to be retired, after "only" 0.5 My. > With maximally equitble distribution about 10% of Citizens are patrons, 1% > of the population have 2 clients. In this sort of society you might want > to uplift your client early to maximize your power. This implies a species > lifecycle of 10% minority, 10% young adult, 10% active parent with client, > 70% empty nest (except for the 10% of the population who get a second > client). With low death rates the average client in its > minority/indenture would have 4 ancestors in its patronymic because a > citizen tends to start its uplift project when it is about 200KY old. > And this is consistent with the data from the Books. > Alternatively, a most responsible citizen might uplift their client late so > they have a lot of wisdom and technology for the project. Then you have > 10% minor, 60% adult, 10% parent, 20% elder. Patronymics tend to be short. > And Patronymics _are_ short: few races enumerate more than 3 or 4 "daddies". > At really low levels of equity only 1% of all species might be patrons at > any given time and many patrons will be active uplifting clients throughout > their careers as main sequence citizens. > > If we want 1MY mean life-spans, then 11% clients and 5% patrons might > provide for interesting but not grossly inequitble politics consistent with > existing sources on the Uplift Universe. > Uh? Alberto Monteiro _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
