On Wednesday 2003-12-24 06:22, Alberto Monteiro wrote: > Trent Shipley wrote: > >> My estimate includes all five. Of course, as in Drake's equation, > >> each factor has an error from 10% to 900% :-) > >> > >>>> * about 10 planets per race > >>>> * about 200,000 races > > > > Alberto, as I recall Drake's Equation has no factor for > > "Planets Fallow by order of the GIM." > > ??? > > What I said is that the factors I get for Uplift have error bars > similar to Drake's equation's terms: they can be 1/10 to 10 times > the guesstimate.
Check. > > Are you proposing there 2M habitable planets, some of > > which are Fallow or that there are, perhaps, 6M habitable > > planets 2M of which are *not* Fallow? > > No. I propose that there are 2M planets _with_ galactic > civilization settled on them. But they could be 20M or 200k. Good. So 2M is a _reasonable_ statistical expectiation for planets that could support civilzation across 5 galaxies. > > Have you made any allowance for an increase in the number > > of habitable planets due to terraforming? (Do you need to?) > > No, because I suppose that this is a small factor in the last, > say, 500 My. > > Stars come and go, planets come and go. The terraforming of > planets should probably just keep the number of planets in > a stable number. Lets come back to terraforming. I think that it would be a major (and s-l-o-w-l-y increasing) factor in the total number of habitable planets. > BTW, I also guess that there are about 10 fallow planets for > each settled planet, based on the data that a planet is usually > leased for 100ky, and it is let fallow for a minimum of 500ky > [usually more]. > I am going to assume that a factor of 1:10 is the high end for an inhabited to fallow ratio if planets are leased for an average 100ky and fallow for a minimum of 500ky. What we need is a figure for mean fallow time. Lets pick 700ky. If there are 2M inhabited planets then there are 14M fallow planets. At any given time there must be a total of 16M habitable planets. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
