I'm sure that other people here are following the election very closely, so
I wanted to post some thoughts about where things stand, 3 weeks and 1
debate before the election.
Before the 1st debate, Bush had managed to hang on to quite a "poll bouncs"
from the Republican National Convention and appeared to be around 5-6
points up in the polls. Kerry managed to dent that bounce a bit with a
solid "win" in the 1st debate, narrowing it around a 1-2 point Bush lead in
the polls.
One thing to keep in mind, however, is that in any race involving an
incumbent, voters tend to have much stronger opinions about the incumbent
than the challenger. Thus, in addition to consider the "spread" in the
polls, it is also very import to watch the absolute "re-elect" number for
George Bush. As an aside to this, Gallup has found that the summertime
"approval rating" for an incumbent President is a very accurate predictor
of the incumbents eventual November vote total. In this case, not only
was Bush's summertime approval rating right around 49-50%, but he again
seems to be consistently getting around 49-50% as his "re-elect number" in
the polls. In other words, there are some indications that around 49% of
the American people have already decided to re-elect the President, and
with around 2% likely being taken by Nader and other miscellaneous
candidates, that may mean that Kerry's best hope is to play for another tie
- this time 49-49 instead of 48-48 in 2000.
A look at the electoral college further suggests that Kerry may need to
draw an inside straight to win. After all, remember that due to
redistricting, a straight re-run of the 2000 election would produce a
278-260 Bush win. Moreover, further remember that there were five states
decided by less than 0.5% of the vote in 2000, and that Al Gore won four of
them - OR, NM, IA, and NM. Those states are naturally battlegrounds this
time around, and all set up an electoral college field that appears to
favor the President.
Consider, for example, this more detailed look:
Bush States Never in Doubt:
AK, UT, ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, MS, AL, GA, SC, KY, IN
133 EV's
About the closest State up here is Montana, which Clinton won once, thanks
only to a huge showing by Perot. Otherwise, these States are as solidly
Republican as it gets.
Kerry States Never in Doubt:
HI, CA, IL, DC, MD, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI
150 EV's
Republicans might have dreamed about California, but these States have all
become very reliably Democratic.
Bush States That Were Thought About, But Never Really "In Play":
AR, LA, TN, NC, VA,
54 EV's - 187 EV Total
Clinton/Gore gave the Democrats an opening in the South, but without a
hometown hero, there was really no shot in AR or LA. There was some
thought that Edwards might make Kerry competitive in the "New South" states
of NC and VA, but Edwards was a one-termer in NC and not really established
there, and the suburbs of DC and Charlotte will need a few more cycles of
growth before they reverse their old South routes.
Kerry States That Were Thought About, But Never Really "In Play"
WA, DE, NJ
29 EV's - 179 Total
Seattle has simply become so large in comparison to the rest of the State
that it is hard for Republicans to win statewide in Washington. Despite
some tempting polls in New Jersey, in part due to a local nepotism scandal
involving the Democratic New Jersey governor, local news coverage of the
Repuiblican National Convention across the river in NY, and probably due to
many wealthy New Jerseyians benefitting from the Bush tax cuts - it is
simply too expensive to compete in the New York City media market to make a
play at Jersey. As for Delaware, its mere 3 EV's appear to have been too
small for anyone to take notice of.
So, at this point it is Bush 187, Kerry 179 - a narrow Bush lead.
States That Appear to Be Conceded by the Kerry Campaign
AZ, MO, WV, CO
35 EV's - 222 Total
Despite hope that Hispanic immigration might tilt Arizona, that demographic
effect appears to be a cycle or two away. In the face of killer poll
numbers, the Kerry campaign has pulled its staff out of AZ and both the
Kerry campaign and DNC are "off the air" in AZ. Likewise, there appears
to be little staff and even less ad buys in MO - as this classic swing
State appears to have swung on its conservative roots into the Republican
column. Meanwhile, a very under-reported story appears to be the very
quiet concession of WV. Neither Kerry nor Edwards has visited WV in quite
a while, and ACT, a Kerry 527, has just pulled its volunteers out of the
State. Lastly, Colorado appears to be a bit of a wild card, but I can't
envision anything other than its 9 EV's going for Bush. A recent post
1st-debate Gallup poll showed a tie, but Gallup's polls seem to have swung
wildly this year. A Mason-Dixon poll, which is a very excellent polling
firm, also post 1st-debate shows Bush +9. The truth is probably
somewhere in between, but suffice to say that Colorado has a very strong
Republican trend, and a large voter registration advantage. Although
Hispanic immigration is surely playing a factor, it is hard to believe that
immigration is swinging Colorado while leaving Arizona untouched. It is
also worth remembering that the 2000 Colorado polls also strongly
underestimated Republican support, with Bush winning by 8% and Sen. Wayne
Allard winning suprisingly easily. Lastly, while there is an initiative
on the ballot to split Colorado's EV's, it is nearly inconceivable that
Colorado would choose to commit electoral suicide in this way - and that's
probably more said about that than it is worth. If Kerry suddenly surges
to a national lead, WV and CO could move back in play, but assuming a race
that continues to remain very tight, these two seem to be off the map.
States that Appear to Be Conceded by the Bush Campaign
OR, MI, ME, MN
38EV's - 217 Total
Oregon was a recount State in 2000 primarily due to the effect of Ralph
Nader's strong showing. Bush and Cheney haven't visited in a while, and
this seems to be a solid lean Kerry. Ditto for MI, which also isn't
receiving nearly the attention of the others. The tremendous union
organization here should deliver the State for Kerry in almost any
circumstance. ME appears to simply be too left-leaning to go for a
conservative Republican like Bush or at least too far off the beaten path
for too few electoral votes for Bush and Cheney to pursue. Lastly, the
Bush-Cheney camp clearly have dreams of flipping Minnesota, and indeed
could do so, but it just doesn't appear that MN will decide the election.
So, we now have Bush 227 - Kerry 217. Only a 10 EV advantage for Bush,
here, but an important 10 EVs.
This leaves the remaining solid battlegrouds of:
NV - 5, NM - 5, IA - 7, WI - 10, OH - 20, PA - 21, FL - 27, and NH - 4
99 EV's Total
If this election continues to remain very close, here is how I see it
playing out:
LEAN Bush
NV, WI, FL
42 EV's, 264 Total
Bush won Nevada by 4.5% in 2000 (Nader only had 2.5%), and while Hispanic
immigration and suburban growth around Las Vegas has started to swing
Nevada from its "Old West - Republican" roots, Kerry has never pulled ahead
here, except in a single post-convention polls (other post convention polls
showed a Bush lead.) Overall, it appears that Kerry is going to fall
short here. Wisconsin, meanwhile, was won by less than 0.5% by Gore among
allegations of voter fraud in 2000. Like much of the Midwest, cultural
issues seem to be swinging this State rightward from its Democratic roots,
and growth of Chicago exurbs has also benefited Republicans. Bush has
held a consistent lead in polls here, including the only post 1st-debate
poll, by Gallup, showing Bush 49 Kerry 46. Its beginning to look like
Bush is the favorite here. Lastly, FL is clearly the hardest State to
figure. A whopping four hurricanes have diverted the State's attention
from politics, and have essentially prohibited campaigning. Bush does
seem to have benefited from being able to "look Presidential" while
approving federal disaster relieft aid. A booming Florida economy and a
fairly popular brother as a Republican governor seem to have offset any
demographic changes from, say, additional Hispanic immigration or
"snowbird" migration. Of the six post 1st-debate polls we do have from
Florida, 5 show a Bush lead of 4 points or greater, and three have Bush at
49% or higher. Suffice to say, Bush is at a minimum a narrow favorite here.
At this point, Kerry is in something of a bind. Assume for a moment that
Kerry successfully defends PA, despite the all-out Bush campaign for its 21
EV's. Even if Kerry picks up NH, which is slowly becoming a suburb of
Boston, and even if Kerry picks up OH - which while a toss-up, does have
something of a Republican home-field advantage, Kerry is still only at 262
EV's. Now, Kerry *still* needs to pick up IA *and* NM.
If, for example, Kerry gets IA, but Bush grabs NM (and NM appears to be
about as perfect of a toss-up as it gets, with polls evenly split and a
mere 400 vote margin in 2000), that leaves us at 269 - 269. Bush,
however, can pick up that one extra EV by winning Maine's northern 2nd
Congressional District. Maine, remember, splits its EV's by
Congressional District. Failing that, the vote would go to the House of
Representatives, which is almost certain to be controlled by Republicans.
In other words, a tie clearly gives the advantage to President Bush,
between the House and ME CD#2 (the rest of Maine's 3 EV's seem fairly
solid for Kerry).
Thus, at this juncture, it just simply appears that unless Kerry can
fundamentally change the dynamics of the race in the final debate, he is
essentially stuck drawing for an inside straight - 1) pickups of OH and NH
(OH is again looking very decisive for Kerry); 2) while defending PA, IA,
and MN, (IA being a close call at this point) and 3) winning one of NM, NV,
WV, or WI (one being a toss-up, the other three being Bush "leans" of
varying degrees.)
Any one of these three things fails, and then Kerry's only other option is,
in the immortal words of Tim Russert, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
_______________________________________________
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