At 10:28 PM 11/1/2004 -0500 John D. Giorgis wrote:
>Final Totals: Bush 290, with 50.1% of the vote. Kerry 248 with 48.4% of
>the vote.
>
>If Kerry does win, I believe with about 90% confidence that it will be one
>of the following scenarios:
>1) FL and OH
>2) FL, WI, and MN
>3) OH, WI, MN, NH, and HI
Two things:
First, I was just talking to a friend of mine who is a very intelligent
political analyst, and very, very, pro-Democrat whom I use to keep my
honest on these things. He stated that he actually thinks there is
another scenario for Kerry that is exceedingly likely:
4) FL, IA, MN and HI
His thinking is that Iowa is a turnout where ground turnout operations
matter a lot - more so than other States. (He also believes that MN and
HI will "come home" to the Democrats.)
Secondly, I forgot to State perhaps my most important reason in picking
Bush to win (besides my inevitable own biases and optimism.) When it
comes right down to it, the fact that both candidates spent time this week
in Minnesota and Michigan, and not in Missouri is a huge advantage for
Bush. All of the potential big surprises - NJ, MI, and to a slightly
lesser-extent MN and HI involve Gore States flipping to Bush. That just
simply gives Bush a few more paths to 270 than Kerry, which could prove
decisive in the end.
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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