At 10:55 PM 11/1/2004 -0800 Doug Pensinger wrote: >There are several factors that lead me to believe that Kerry will win >tomorrow. The youth vote that you mentioned is one. I also think that >lower income voters (another group that is not easily polled) will turn >out in record numbers and vote heavily for Kerry.
I should point out that pollsters use weighting to account for these things. Thus, the problem with the youth vote and the low-income vote isn't that they are "not easily polled", it is that the appropriate weight for this vote may be hard to predict. > I also think that Iraq >will keep many Republicans home tomorrow. I think that you are wrong on this. The Iraq War is actually the one thing that still motivates many Republicans. Where you could be right is that when "independents" and "swing voters" get into the voting booth, that all the problems in Iraq will convince them that we just simply need a change. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
