----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Thursday, November 04, 2004 10:52 PM
Subject: Where do we go from here?



> 3. The traditional Democratic argument has been that a
> high turnout election would result in a Democratic
> victory - that supposedly there was an unvoting
> majority in the US that supports the Democratic Party.
>  There is, quite literally, no empirical evidence to
> support this belief, and there never has been.

It may not be as true now, but it was pretty well established by empirical
data in the past.  One always noted about a 4%-6% increase/decrease in the
spread (whichever favors the Republicans when the polling switched from
adult Americans to likely voters.  This switch usually happened after the
conventions.

Dan M.


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