On Dec 16, 2004, at 3:44 PM, Erik Reuter wrote:
I think you are both underestimating the duration of the transition. I
doubt the cross-over point will be reached in our lifetimes, but in
general what will happen (barring a revolutionary technological advance)
is that fossil fuels will gradually get more expensive (I'm talking
50-100 years order of magnitude here). Fossil fuels won't just "run
out".
OK, I can see that, I think -- rather than it being like a soda straw suddenly sucking the last of the Coke, and then nothing, it'll be a gradual tapering off that will economically *force* a changeover. Should the fuel issues take that long to develop, and they very well might, you're probably right about the way the transition will take place.
Eventually the price of fossil fuel will exceed that of alternative energy sources (mostly solar and wind), which will also probably come down in price a bit over the years.
Solar and wind -- you ever watch _Mythbusters_? They had a few "free energy" devices and schemes on a while back, and all throughout the episode I was wondering what people were thinking. We're orbiting the biggest fusion reactor within four lightyears, and there's plenty of "free" energy in windpower as well. Yet there were "inventions" that included using large tanks filled with expandable gases (I think LPG) that would use solar heat to rotate the tanks in and out of cooling baths; and there was some ludicrous scheme to string up about 20m of wire to suck RF energy out of the air and power a digital watch. (It didn't work; they got half a volt, no more.)
And this was seen as more practical than creating a small turbine-powered windmill. Goofy stuff.
There are some very remote areas on reservations here in AZ that are running on solar now. Panels are installed on a per-house basis and suck up juice all day long and drop it into banks of rechargeable batteries, which are then used by night to power lighting, TVs and so on, everything running 12V DC. Overall, it seems this scheme was designated as more efficient than stringing transmission lines and dealing with cable maintenance.
-- Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books http://books.nightwares.com/ Current work in progress "The Seven-Year Mirror" http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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