On Fri, 06 May 2005 22:28:09 -0400, JDG wrote > Why would one expect the business cycle to have periodicity?
Isn't that why we call things "cycles" -- because we observe them to be periodic? What are you asking? > Another important flaw is that economic growth for a given year is > not an independent variable. It is serially correlated to the > previous year's economic growth. Are you describing autocorrelation or something else? One big question would be to discover if there's an autocorrelation lag, which could reveal that there's a stronger correlation to economic growth that lags n months after a Republican administration. It's being presented without the dates, so I can't even easily look for lag. And I wouldn't be surprised to find that there isn't enough data to reach good conclusions. Somebody gimme a correlogram. I'm skeptical about this stuff, too, mostly because I work so much with time series and correlations that I know how difficult it is to make good statistical sense of such data. Nick _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
