----- Original Message ----- From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, May 12, 2005 9:12 PM Subject: Re: Is Iraq better off? (was Re: Br!n: Re: more neocons)
> Dan M. wrote: > > Right, and I have a very recent one in my hip pocket, so to speak. > > I just wanted to see if folks would assign it a value before seeing > > the results. :-) > > I suspect as much when I read your original message.... and I have to > wonder, isn't withholding such evidence - indeed withholding that you have > a priori knowledge of this evidence - in those circumstances the equivalent > of baiting? No, I've just tried to get people to commit to their understanding of the validity of a type of data independent of it supporting or countering their viewpoint. > Then again, you recently offered to compare economic growth > during the Great Depression to that of World War II...... so I'm not sure > what you are thinking here. I'm thinking data are. We should fit theory to data, not pidgen hole data into what we already know is true. > >I think a reasonable measure of this would be the opinion of the people of > >Iraq. Ideally, the question would be "are you better off than you were > >under Hussein" or "are you better off than you were three years ago." But, > >a decent secondary question that indicates the opinion of the people of > >Iraq is "are things going in the right direction?" > > I don't think that the questions are at all comparable (and I actually > suspect that the withheld results you have might even be in my favor - > though I don't know for sure.) The "right direction" question is > inherently divorced from time. For example, the results to that question > would be quite different in the week immediately after the election or > immediately after the swearing in of the new government vs. say in the past > week. I do not believe, however, that this question inspires the > populace to make a comparison with life under Saddam Hussein. The time frame is a bit ambiguous, but I think that it is reasonable to assume that people consider the biggest changes of the last couple of years when they answer this. If most people thought the country was going in the wrong direction, then it would be hard to say that people consider things a lot better. The quote from http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050506/wl_mideast_afp/iraqpollpolitics_050506175337 is "And 67 percent of Iraqis now think the country is going in the right direction, the most optimistic response in the last year, the poll showed. Some 22 percent said Iraq was going in the wrong direction. Sentiment hit an all-time low in early October 2004, as US forces started pounding Fallujah from the air ahead of a November ground assault on the town, 40 kilometres (25 miles) west of Baghdad, the poll showed.Some 45 percent of Iraqis said the country was going in the wrong direction at the time, edging past the 42 percent who felt more positive." This poll was taken in mid-April. A poll taken a year ago asked about whether Iraq was better off than before the war. And, 56% said Iraq was better off before the war, while 70% were optimistic about the future. The source isn't as good for this poll, it is: http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2004319.asp which looks a bit biased. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
