> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of Nick Arnett
> Sent: Monday, September 18, 2006 9:43 AM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: 9/11 conspiracies (WAS RE: What should we believe when there
> is no reliable information?)
> 
> On 9/17/06, Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 
> >  But for this type of
> > conspiracy to have occurred - one in which the towers
> > were destroyed by explosives inside the building, and
> > then the evidence of this suppressed after the attacks
> > - then literally thousands of people would have to be
> > involved in the coverup, because that's how many
> > people were involved in the investigation and/or have
> > the skills to identify flaws in the published reports
> > about the investigation.
> 
> Now I understand what your reasoning.  I didn't realize that you were
> positing a vast coverup as part of all the conspiracy theories.
> 
> Assuming that a large number of people can't be wrong about something
> because they are smart and well-connected is a tautology. 

I think that you are still missing the point, so let me try it again.  Let
me start with one example: Gautam's dad.  He's a structural engineer.  I
think it is fair to say that one of the first instincts that a technical
person like him or myself when faced with something like this is trying to
understand it.  In particular, when one's own area of expertise is involved,
using that expertise to understand is all but instinctive.

He wasn't well connected, he did not have inside information.  He just knew
the subject matter.  There are thousands of structural engineers who should
have been able to see the holes in the explanations of the collapse of the
towers if the holes in the explanations were as big as claimed.  The WTC
collapse is at least one of the most, if not the most, studied building
collapses in history.  And, everyone but a few brave outsiders missed the
obvious?

Only in the movies can clever plotters take care of all the threads in an
extremely complex plot.  Puzzling clues are usually left.  For tech folks,
anomalies are to be pursued, even if one has no real candidate for what
causes them.  A grad. student in structural engineering doesn't need to
believe that the WTC was brought down by bombs to conclude that the speed of
the collapse was inconsistent with the basic numbers.  Having been a
technical grad. student, I know what is usually done in this case.  First
one goes over one's own numbers a few times....then if one can't see a flaw,
one brings it to a trusted colleague.  Then, if there still is
inconsistency, several grad students look at it, then take it up the chain
as a:  "we might all be missing something, but on the surface....the numbers
just don't add up."  Heck, there already was a smoking gun for a secondary
cause that everyone would be inclined to accept: shoddy workmanship by
contractors who cut corners on the WTC....like the common understanding of
the Big Dig.

If there were stand down orders throughout the air force, unusual drills
that just happened that day, or other parts of the plan....then a lot of
folks should have noticed something really really odd....not just a few
brave souls.  If, as alleged, the AA planes that hit the WTC didn't really
exist...because no plane hit the WTC, then what was going on with the crew
and passengers?

Going back to Gautam's friends, why did McKensey miss important clues in one
of their most important tasks?  Shouldn't they have noticed something, since
they had access to primary information?

This is where the numbers get into the thousands. A conspiracy like those
portrayed would have had to leave clues that thousands should have noticed.


> I think
> there are many examples of large numbers of smart, well-connected
> people who turned a blind eye to an inconvenient truth.  

It's true that even the brightest people can deny the elephant in the living
room.  But, this is not the same as a bright scientist denying the signs
that his son is a drug addict, or the denial of the existence of well
attending lynchings.  

I could see your argument more if noticing the clues would have required
accepting a horrid reality behind the clues.  If, as alleged, a few high
placed people in government were in the process of overthrowing the
Republic, then people might deny the evidence that would require them to
accept that their trust had been horridly betrayed.

But, in this case, the clues would have had to be denied by folks who didn't
realize what the clues meant at the time.  Significant emotional baggage is
not associated with simply noticing that the numbers just don't add up.
There is a lot of difference between stating that we still can't understand
the mechanism of what happened and stating that GWB must have planned the
whole thing.  I'm pretty sure that Gautam's point is that, if there was a
conspiracy, then many many people should have noticed something rather odd
and unexplained in an area in which they had both professional experience
and training.

I think it's more like the claims of Creationists that, except for a brave
few, people in biology are in denial...afraid to take their blinders off and
accept the young earth as obvious.   

>Not that I
> arguing that that's the case with 9/11... but I've generally found it
> more profitable to question authority than to make the kind of
> assumption that you are arguing.

I'm not opposed to questioning authority, but I've noticed over the years
that, if my hypothesis requires that all of the folks that came before me be
absolute incompetents...even though they did nice work....that I can find a
problem with my own work instead of theirs.  Undergraduate physics labs
often provide data that indicates gravitational anomalies....but I wouldn't
place much faith in such results.  The folks before me can be wrong, there
can be a better way, but I've found that my advances usually involve
something unique that I can bring to the table more than being the only
competent person.

Questioning authority is fine, but one needs to calculate probabilities of
various groups being wrong in certain ways.  For example, if you were to ask
me if future generations will find the need to reduce modern physics to a
special cases of better theories, I'd say yes.  If you were to ask if the
2nd law of theromodynamics were to be repealed, I'd say no.

Dan M.



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