> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of William T Goodall > Sent: Wednesday, July 30, 2008 10:30 AM > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion > Subject: Re: Genesis > > > On 30 Jul 2008, at 15:46, Alberto Monteiro wrote: > > > Dan M wrote: > >> > >> There is no evidence that, if the United States decided > >> to fade away as continental Europe is doing, instead of > >> having a ZPG birth rate, (...) > >> > > Brazil is fading away too. Last count is 1.8 births/female. > > > > > Below the UK and France but well above Thailand (1.5) and South Korea > (1.1). > > Patterns Maru
It's an interesting topic. The CIA factbook has estimates for 2008 (estimates most likely based on 2007 and 2006 data) at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127ra nk.html http://tinyurl.com/3yur88 It has the UK at 1.6, falling below Brazil.....which it gives at 1.86. The UK number may not be an outlandish estimate because the UN has the UK at 1.7 between 2000 and 2005. I'm not arguing with Brazil's number, but it does represent a big drop from 2000-2005: (2.35). But, with the EU, on the whole at 1.5 and Russia at 1.4, we're looking at a Europe that will be shrinking, roughly, 30% per generation. We see birth rates exceeding death rates in countries like Germany, France, and Italy now. Of course, we're also seeing that in Japan. Given the fact that Europe is showing resistance to the idea of significant additional immigration of non-Europeans, and that Japan has long held racial purity as important, I wonder who will take care of all the baby boomers as they enter their 70s, 80s and 90s, when the working population continues to shrink drastically. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
