On Sat, Nov 15, 2008 at 11:46 AM, Rceeberger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> On 11/15/2008 11:55:20 AM, John Williams ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
>
>> Did you make any posts predicting the housing crisis before, say,
>> 2004?
>
> I don't recall having posted about this onlist, but it has been on my mind
> for a few years as being a serious problem w/consequences.

I hazard a guess that the reason you did not post is one of these:

1) You were not certain enough of your prediction to risk that other
people might act on it

2) You did not care enough to help others with your insight

Or perhaps none of the above. But whatever the reason, it is a good
example of the difficulty of regulating markets.

If the government were good at predicting these things, then I think
what should be done is to convey the predictions and warnings to the
public, and let people act on them as they see fit. This has the great
advantage (compared to regulation) that people are not forcing their
will on others, encroaching on liberty and freedom. But this approach
is rarely used. I claim it is because the government is no better, and
probably worse, at predicting these things than the markets.
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