Rob:
I think you are right on target with your comments. I have not  
followed all of the previous discussion but on cars I would like to  
add my two cents.

I replaced my Chevy Trailblazer and VW Passat last year with a Ford  
Escape Hybrid(current Mpg avg is 31.2mpg after 7000miles) and a  
Prius(45.2mpg). When gas was up I was tickled now it is down I am  
still tickled because performance is great and of course there is the  
global warming thing.  I bought the Escape on Ebay from a dealer and  
the Prius on Craigslist from a dealer I got good prices that I do not  
regret.

Battery technology is moving very fast as is ultracapacitor technology  
which has the advantage of rapid recharging over batteries. And much  
of that technology is the product of good old USA innovation and  
creativity. The problem is that for most of the last 10 years all new  
battery plants have been built overseas with the great majority going  
to China. China gave good incentives to get those plants because they  
have a problem and they know it. both environment and access to  
petroleum. China has mandated that all vehicle manufactured after 2012  
must be electric and that battery manufacturers must supply domestic  
demand before they can export product. If we do not get on the stick  
and start building our own manufacturing base we will find ourselves  
in the predicament of choosing our poison, Chinese batteries or  
foreign oil, who do we want to send our money to?

The price of petroleum among many other things has been manipulated to  
milk as much money out of our pockets as possible. At $150/barrel even  
offshore drilling began to look feasible so we saw a rush to get the  
leases out even though there were many millions of acres already under  
lease and not explored. Do you think it was because the present  
administration's Dept. of Commerce wanted to control who got the  
leases? Who knows but there were many of us watching this on the  
internet and as we all saw the Commerce lease office was brought to  
heal. Oil prices started down very quickly though it seemed to be in  
conjunction with the economic melt down of Wall Street one has to  
wonder.

We have got to stop thinking in terms of present day costs and start  
thinking longer term. Corporations have been so under the microscope  
on quarterly earnings that they tend to let the long term planning  
slide. The laissez faire attitude of government towards the economy  
trusted that corporations would do the long term planning.  We are now  
reaping the results. I do not necessarily think that is was just  
greed. I think it was a combination of our own short term focus on  
quarterly profits and the rock star like status we assigned to people  
who could generate cash without looking at or understanding how those  
profits were obtained and what the long term effects would be.

We have to build a sustainable economy that is environmentally  
friendly, that is self reliant and allows us to retain capital in this  
country.

May we all have a good year!
Chris Frandsen



On Jan 7, 2009, at 6:29 PM, xponentrob wrote:

> For exactly the same reasons people bought hybrids before gas prices  
> started
> rising so much last year.
> (BTW the Tesla gets 244 miles between charges with the new  
> transmission) All
> car dealers are experiencing a slump ATM, in large part due to a  
> lack of
> available credit, so I think some fudging of expectation is allowed.
> So, after the economy starts moving towards something like a new  
> normalcy,
> I'm thinking we will see some increases on gas taxes as a means to  
> limit
> fuel usage (a small shunt on CO2 emissions?)  and decrease national
> indebtedness. In the meantime competition should improve the  
> abilities of
> BEVs (batteries too) and the more golfcart-like models will become
> unremembered history.
>
>
>
>>
>>
>> As soon as a 100-mile-
>>> range battery powered car is available, there are plenty of people  
>>> who
>>> would much rather charge their cars overnight (on off-peak  
>>> electrical
>>> power, at home) and get the energy equivalent of 150 mpg (even
>>> counting the overall 70% charge efficiency of the battery system)  
>>> for
>>> the daily commute.  Enough that even one production generation will
>>> bring the concept close enough to maturity for them to displace
>>> gasoline-powered vehicles.
>>
>> They are available, they are much more expensive than ICE based  
>> cars, and
>> they are selling only in small numbers to those with _a lot_ of
>> discretionary income.
>>
> http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/11/active-wheel-affordable-electric-car.php?daylife=1
>
> This is the kind of vehicle I expect to become common as an example  
> of a
> BEV. No drive train, a waste of mass and energy, and a lot of  
> electronic
> control. The car of the future should be much more like the Eliica  
> than the
> Tesla. (Except pleasing to look at like the Tesla as opposed to the  
> Eliica.)
>
>
> xponent
> Written In Haste, Apologies Maru
> rob

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