Original Message: ----------------- From: Charlie Bell [email protected] Date: Tue, 6 Jan 2009 08:48:53 +1100 To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
On 06/01/2009, at 7:58 AM, Dan M wrote: >> >>> With a few minor exceptions, the USA is running largely on momentum, >>> which is finite. > >> How does an economy grow on momentum? >It doesn't, indefinitely. And GDP is a poor measure, it really is. Even GDP per capita? Even after figuring in purchasing power parity? Is your arguement that per person income is not a good financial measure of the wealth of a country? > It doesn't tackle the important stuff, like how many people are in >poverty, in jail, educated, health and so on. I can understand why there would be a very complex arguement as to which country is now preferable. But, with the borderline exception of GB, most developed countries have been very good at decreasing potential problems by keeping their coutries homogeneous (e.g. keeping different ethnic groups down to small minorities). I know my Zambian daughter Neli, who studied a semester in Europe, sees Europe as clearly more racist than the US. The US is dealing with the aftereffects of slavery and Jim Crow, which has hurt in very paradoxial ways. For example, after civil rights, a large fraction of blacks though only Oreos studied hard in school, men didn't need to take care of their children, etc. My African daughters have both commented on this. The good news is that Obama's election is starting to change some minds. The US is also dealing with a massive influx of poor uneducated Hispanics across our porous border. In a couple of generations, they become as likely as the next American to be well educated, out of jail, etc, but in the short term they add considerably to the poverty rate, crime rate, etc. I know Hispanic gangs are very dangerous around here. >And on all those measures, the USA is not doing well compared to other developed >nations. Well, I see you didn't include unemployment, projected workers/retiree ratios, productivity or any of the factors that favor the US. Health is a very complex subject, which I'd be glad to discuss (including the fact that the US is paying for health advances that other developed countries then piggy back on), as is poverty. Again, we can have a fruitful discussion on either topic, but the realities are very complex. >That plus the astonishing debt burden left by Reagan/Bush 1 >and then Bush 2 and it's hard to see how the US can maintain its >position long term. The debt burden (as a percentage for the US is actually lower now than in '92. After the stimulous package it will probably exceed that number, but still be far lower than it was in '46. It will be a problem, but not an insurmountable one. What I cannot figure out among all the people who think that the US is about to fall from its perch and see a singular massive depression (e.g. the US drops while every other country rises) is who's going to take over. Europe is getting old and will be seeing its population drop significantly over the next 50 years, has fianancial institutions that are far more leveraged than the US institutions as well as far less transparent. Why do you think, after the the US had a financial crisis, that the Euro dropped like a rock compared to the dollar....even though the balance of trade deficits of the US should have cause the opposite. Japan is getting even older, after sufferoing a lost decade when it was projected to overtake the US for ecconomic dominence. China has far more at risk than the US, besides being far poorer. I realize that there is a great desire in the world to see the US get its comeuppance. But, while I beleived that Japan might overtake the US back in the 80s, I don't see any candidate now. What might be possible, if the US growth slows down, is a non-polar world....which will be far more dangerous than anything we've seen since October, '62. Dan M. -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
