> -----Original Message----- > From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On > Behalf Of xponentrob > Sent: Monday, January 12, 2009 6:16 PM > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion > Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Dan M" <dsummersmi...@comcast.net> > To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> > Sent: Monday, January 12, 2009 12:56 PM > Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? > > > > First, I got a "not there" when looking for the paper. Second, > batteries > > will have to become many orders of magnitude better for storage of power > > generation at off peak times for use at peak times....particularly if we > > are > > thinking of things like wind power which would be close to economically > > feasible right now if there was such a storage mechanism. > > There are a few companies currently promoting business plans wherein > downtown office buildings would purchase *used* current technology Li-ion > auto batteries to store off-peak power for re-use during peak hours. > Storing power on-site would have some advantages.
OK, that's a much smaller usage than I was thinking of that is based on the fact that industrial users have a big portion of their bill based on their highest usage rate for the month. I can see why that would make economic sense for those companies. But, it does little to cut CO2 emissions, it may actually raise them slightly (battery storage is good but not perfect). If this use were extended, then it might slightly decrease the number of power plants needed to be built, but would slightly increase the amount of electricity used. Indeed, it might be an incentive to add to the fraction of electricity generated by coal. > That doesn't resemble any plan I've seen. What I've seen has storage only > mitigating peak usage for 24 hour cycles. If the wind doesn't blow, you > just lose out on savings. But, it also means that wind can't be counted on. In another forum I was debating this, and was led to a website maintained by the company that has the largest fraction of wind in its mix. They stated that they can only count on about 5% of nameplate capacity, and that this was becoming a limiting factor on their use of wind. > > and compressed air storage downhole. > > I think we discussed this about a year or so ago. One of our wind power > discussions. Yup > > Already occuring. Industry is also funding considerable reseach on it's > own. > A lot of good reseach results have already come in as a result of battery > nano-research. There is already a Li-ion battery that will recharge to 90% > of capacity in 10 minutes and full charge (from dead) in less than an > hour. They are working on manufacturing techniques to reduce cost and >increase reliability, but that news is around a year old. And, I haven't seen battery prices fall. If the market and the technology is there, someone will take advantage of it. Look at computers, were a zillion companies sprang up out of virtually nowhere after the IBM PC was developed 25 or so years ago. > > If we can get Li-I batteries to increase their capacity > > by say 10x, while holding their cost constant, then electric cars become > > economically feasible. But, if we don't, then we can subsidize electric > > cars with hundreds of billions and we still won't have anything more > than > > an > > expensive subsidy program, like ethanol. > > > When manufacturing capacity comes online here in the US costs should come > down fairly dramatically. The problem currently is that there are only a > few > manufacturers, almost all overseas, and none can supply enough to cause a > price drop. But there is a LOT of money to be made even with lower prices, > so there are a good number of companies vying for a piece of the pie. Why is manufacturing overseas? What massive Li-ifactory building programs exist in the US? The problem with US manufacturing is that, even at minimum wage without benefits, labor costs are relatively high here. In Zambia, for example, getting two dollars a day at a factory is a big step up for most people. Here, with tax and government overheads, a minimum wage worker costs a company >$8.00 per hour. I spent a few minutes googling and found no indication that there are now factories with large capacities for building these batteries now being built in the US. I also got no announcements, except from the governor of Michigan who said she wanted Michigan to give tax incentives to do so. If you have sites that show that the US is getting into the Li-I battery manufacturing business, that would be great to see. Otherwise, I think you can understand why I think that this manufacturing, like so many other factories, will be overseas. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
