John Williams wrote: > Economists are no better at predicting the future than anyone else. > How many economists do you know that got rich investing? The vast > majority of economists do no better than average at investing. > > Of course economists like to persuade others that they can predict the > future better than non-economists, and then to claim that they can fix > things when they go wrong. That makes them look good, feel good, like > they are vitally needed and are helping people. More importantly, they > get more prestigious jobs by persuading others that they have the > magic touch.
Who would you have us listen to then? > If economists were so capable of making things better, then the > reasonable and scientific thing to do would have been to not act > immediately, to observe scientifically, to see if things were really > going as bad as some claimed. If they had done that, then there would > be evidence whether their predictions of doom were true, and then the > politicians and economists could spring into action and fix things. > The problem is, if they did that, people would realize that > economists' predictions are no better than a coin-flip. Why risk their > reputation on that? Maybe firefighters, upon arriving at a structure fire should observe scientifically to see if things were really burning as quickly as they seemed. Then again, maybe not. Doug _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
