On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Nick Arnett<[email protected]> wrote:

> Only in the general sense.

Which is what was under discussion. If a significant part of a
building is on fire (i.e., not just a fireplace or whatever), it is
not likely that anyone able to explore the building will miss the fact
that the building is on fire, and people could predict with good
accuracy whether that fire is likely to go out without intervention.

It is absurd to compare a burning building to the US economy. On one
hand, you have the economy where even someone as distinguished as Ben
Bernanke has repeatedly failed to predict fundamental concepts such as
whether a disaster was imminent or whether smooth sailing was ahead.
On the other hand, you have a burning building, where firefighters
(and most anyone who is able to look around the building, for that
matter) knows that the building is burning and has some idea of what
will happen if there is no intervention.

With the burning building, it is extremely unlikely that a horde of
people will individually, or as a group, study the situation, form
plans each using their own specialized knowledge of the situation, and
proceed to solve the problem of the burning building, a little bit at
a time. But in a large economy like in the US, this is exactly what
has been happening every day, for decades.

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