It has occurred to me that in a position like this previously discussed one:
http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=47213 GNU Backgammon Position ID: gwEAQCoAAAAAAA Match ID : cAmgACAAGAAA +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg | | | O O | OOO 2 points | | | O O | OO | | | | OO | | | | OO | | | | OO v| |BAR| | 5 point match (Cube: 1) | | | | XX | | | | XX | | | | XX | | | | XX On roll | | | X X X X | XXX 3 points +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: Neil The MWC chance following Double/Take is directly obtainable from the Two-Sided Database. Doubling produces an automatic redouble so the situation is in effect cubeless. The DB gives Cubeless equity: +0.4707. Therefore where x = MWC/100 x - (1 - x) = 0.4707 x = 0.73535 MWC = 73.535% after Double/Take This is in very close agreement with the XG rollout. Is there any reason GNU analysis cannot use this exact method? I feel I still get complete nonsense here with the latest windows build. 7-ply cubeless MWC 67.39% (Money: +0.387) 0.694 0.000 0.000 - 0.306 0.000 0.000 Cubeful equities: 1. No double 70.06% 2. Double, pass 75.08% ( 5.01%) 3. Double, take 69.36% ( -0.70%) Proper cube action: No double, take (12.3%) It also sure worries me to get rollout results that are quite certainly wrong. Rollout details: Centered 1-cube: 0.728 0.000 0.000 - 0.272 0.000 0.000 CL 68.25% CF 70.66% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Player gnubg owns 2-cube: 0.732 0.000 0.000 - 0.268 0.000 0.000 CL 81.71% CF 73.16% [0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL 0.00% CF 0.00%] Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 129600 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865036646 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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