Hi Richard. The luck adjusted result looks OK to me.
You had -12.342% luck and tophat had +35.705% luck. The actual result was you -50%, tophat +50%. The Luck-Adjusted result formula = Actual Result - Own Luck + Opponent's Luck. Your luck-adjusted result = -50 - -12.342 + 35.705 = -1.953% Tophat's luck-adjusted result = 50 - 35.705 + -12.342 = -1.953% In other words, without the luck, tophat would have got to 1.95% instead of +50%, and you would have got to -1.95% instead of -50%. His victory was almost entirely by luck. You aren't the first person to find this confusing. If the formula were instead (50 - Own Luck + Opponent's Luck), we would have got 98.05% and 1.95% in your favour. May be it's the Actual Result that is the source of the confusion. If this were reported as +100 and 0, rather than +50 and -50, the current formula (Result - Own Luck + Opponent's Luck), would give 48.05% and 51.95%. This indicates that, with the luck removed, your opponent only managed to get from 50% to 51.95%. Again, his victory was almost entirely luck. I think that (50 - Own Luck + Opponent's Luck) gives the most intuitive result. Does anyone know how the other two active bots, XG and BgBlitz, report the luck adjusted result? It might be sensible to standardize on a definition and use that. I've a feeling that XG uses (50 - Own Luck + Opponent's Luck), but this is only based on my hazy recollection of the discussions at DailyGammon when Miran ran some luck-adjusted tournaments. n Ian From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of RICHARD BEAGLEY Sent: 04 January 2015 16:08 To: [email protected] Subject: [Bug-gnubg] Wrong luck adjusted result on Grandmaster analysis Version GNU backgammon 0.90.0 Aug 8 2011 via XQuartz 2.7.7 (xoorg-server 1.15.2) on MAC OSX 10.6.8 Analysis - grandmaster 3 ply This a single game result (3 point) with extreme differences in move, cube and luck ratings. I should have had a luck adjusted win! Is this a known bug and / or is my software out of date? Regards Richard Beagley (tregurtha)
_______________________________________________ Bug-gnubg mailing list [email protected] https://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg
