The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
August 24-25, 2004
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***2004 Presidential Mud Fight: Betting on Bush vs. "GI John." Oil prices
sliding back� and more!
***Find out why those who live in stone houses should not throw cocktail
glasses�
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
You've just gotten used to the pundits bewailing the low dollar exchange
rate. Then, as a matter of now almost cyclical Dynamic Market moves, the
greenback adds a few cents against the euro within a day or two - without
actually setting any highs worth mentioning.
And the pundits don't like that, either:
"Rebound in dollar may hurt some U.S. firms," wails a headline in the
Philly Inquirer today.
Oh, brother. Just how short are people's market memories? One Michael
Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, was quoted as
saying today: "Absent negative shocks, the rise in the Dow and positive
upswing in equities could certainly put a floor under the dollar."
Hmm� wasn't the recent RISE in the Dow a rebound from a recent FALL
in the Dow� which leaves us exactly where we were four weeks ago?
And look at other assets: Yes, oil prices are easing back from their record
highs near US$50 a barrel. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at
its highest level and actually continues to grow as additional crude oil is
received. With a storage capacity of 727 million barrels and a current
inventory of 667.1 million, further additions are planned for September and
October.
Yes, bond yields are marginally up again - and, yes, gold lost about ten
bucks an ounce over the past three days.
In other words: easy come, easy go! We're almost exactly where we were a
month ago.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average showed a net inflow of US$81
million into US equities. Custody holdings data from the Bank of New York
indicate that foreigners bought a net US$275 million of US equities last week
alone.
Can you see the headlines of tomorrow? "US utterly dependent on foreign
investment."
Give me a break.
***I freely admit that watching the 2004 presidential mud fight unfold is fast
becoming a guilty pleasure with me. Photogenic posing follows ignominious
backpedaling: Was "GI John" really just a waterborne Beatle Bailey?
Who knows? Who dares to argue? Brutus, after all, is an honorable man.
The thing that astonishes me, however, is that a guy with the research
capabilities to locate a National Guard dentist who can't remember checking
the fillings of a government apparatchik's son thirty years ago can't find a
fact checker to make sure he gets the timeline and contemporary president of
his own oft-repeated remembrances of formative epiphanies right�
It may all go to prove the old saying: Those who live in stone houses should
not throw cocktail glasses�
***What does all this mean for the election?
Well, the punters at Tradesports.com appear to have bid up contracts
favoring Bush by two points: PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 (bid/ask
52.6/53.3) currently leads over PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 (46.0/46.9).
For the rest of the election, the GOP is favored to control the House with a
spread of 89.2/89.7. When it comes to control of the US Senate, contracts
on the Republicans are at 75.3/77.9.
To give you an idea of how accurate these things are: the US women's
basketball team is favored to with Olympic gold at a bid of 75.2.
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Earnings Announcements for Wednesday, August 25, 2004:
American Woodmark Corp., Blue Mountain Energy, DataMirror Corp.,
McData Corp., Smucker Co., Sports Authority Inc., Toll Brothers Inc., and
Zygo Corp. are some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"The Belgians weren't half as insufferable when they were the German
army's preferred shortcut to France."
--Mark Steyn, The Daily Telegraph (UK), August 17, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "But our barometer still points to storm. Look for enough bearish energy
to build up over the next 48 hours to pressure the index down 1% and
more."
Our indicators appear to have been wrong or premature again: Hong Kong,
after a dull morning session, rallied in the late afternoon to close at
12,646.49, up 214.72 points or 1.73%.
And still our indicators remain solidly lodged in the red. We'll stick to our
bearish assessment for another day.
*** "For tomorrow, the indicators paint no clear picture. The dollar's rally
could counterbalance the bearish pressure that appears to have been forming
to coast the index to another breakeven close around 10,900."
We saw the bearish potential of yesterday's prediction unfold as the Nikkei
225 dropped to its intraday low of 10,897.11, before mustering a rally to
close at 10,985.33, up 24.36 points (0.22%) for the day.
The leading indicators now point to a mild if inconsistent Tuesday, with gains
around 0.5%.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
Is it just me, or is Tuesday the dullest day of the week? Nothing much ever
seems to happen on Tuesdays. Oh well. With that random thought, let's get
on with what is hopefully an entertaining DoD today�
***Italy Makes a Portuguese Friend: On your first day back at school, it's
important to make a good impression on the new teacher and the people in
charge. You may be telling your kids the very same thing as US schools
prepare to reopen their doors for the new academic year.
So with European Commission President-elect Jos� Manuel Dur�o Barroso
set to start running the rabble that is the European Union, Italy moved swiftly
to impress the new headmaster.
As the country with the largest debt in the EU and, in fact, the third-largest
debt in the world, Italy's proposals to trim its bloated budget deficit have
won approval from EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaqu�n Almunia.
And just in time, too.
Back in early July, Standard and Poor's cut Italy's credit rating from AA to
AA-. Although it was the first cut since 1993, it put the country on the same
level as Slovenia and Andorra. Sheesh. That's embarrassing. With Italy
already paying some 12% of its annual budget as interest on its debt, you'd
think the country would be quick to rectify the situation. Er� not exactly.
A sluggish response portended a clash between Italy and the EU. But the
verbal jousting seems to have abated with Italy's parliament approving new
finance minister Domenico Siniscalco's plan to chop the deficit by 24 billion
euros ($29 billion). This will reduce Italy's budget deficit to 2.7% of GDP
next year, putting the country back within EU fiscal guidelines. While Italy
will achieve this partly through spending cuts, Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi's tax cut proposals will be fulfilled, with 13 billion euros worth of
cuts in 2005 and 2006.
***No Sleaze, Please: Elsewhere in Europe, Senhor Barroso and his new
EU commissioners agreed on a 15-page anti-sleaze code in a bid to enhance
the EU's image and reputation with Europeans. It's also designed to prevent
conflicts of interests by banning payment for articles, speeches and outside
work, except for charity efforts.
But good old Peter Mandelson immediately did what he does best: create
controversy.
I wouldn't be surprised at a few collective sighs of "Oh no, not him again"
when news of his appointment as Britain's European Trade Commissioner
broke a few weeks ago. Mandelson is a notorious figure, having resigned
amid controversy from Tony Blair's Cabinet on two separate occasions, and
is viewed as an arrogant, sneaky and untrustworthy character. Need an
example?
Last weekend, he said if the British electorate voted "no" to the European
Constitution, it wouldn't necessary spell the end for the proposed treaty.
Since it needs ratification from all 25 EU countries to be approved, some
folks (myself included) were left scratching their heads.
On the face of it, it may suggest that Mandelson would advocate holding a
second UK referendum on the constitution if voters reject it the first time
round. If so, it's basically an insult to British voters, telling them they can't be
trusted with a decision. Something like: "Well, you disagreed with us and got
it wrong first time, so have a rethink, vote again, and see if you can say 'yes'
this time."
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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