The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 8-9, 2004
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***Real estate is alive and kicking�
***Is a triple top in gold brewing? If so, here's a word of warning�
***Wall Street's Latest Scam Could Cost You Your Home!
"The Imaginary Real-Estate Crash of 2005"
Don't be fooled! Not only is the looming "real-estate crash" a Big
Lie�but a NEW hidden real-estate BOOM is emerging - and it's making
some people very rich! Read on�
http://www.youreletters.com/t/56852/3785361/646599/70/
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
The Mortgage Bankers Association announced today that its seasonally
adjusted market index (measuring mortgage activity) for the week ending
September 3 rose 7.7% over the previous week. It's the highest reading
since for the week ending May 7.
Despite two rate hikes and another one potentially in the wings, mortgage
rates on average are down 0.20 percentage points from last year. With a
more appetizing rate spread, the MBA's index on new refinancing
applications also rose by 8%.
So despite the real-estate "season" (or what used to pass as such)
wrapping up, it looks like the market is alive and kicking.
Where I live, I have noticed a curious phenomenon: Lots of people seem
eager to cash out at what they consider the top. Driving down the main
road leading to my house, I noticed five or six properties for sale where
there used to be a maximum of two. On one corner leading into an idyllic,
tree-shaded, dead-end street, there are four houses for sale, with a fifth
getting prepped for showing.
That sudden availability may put a check on short-term price proliferation.
But the depleted inventories (that had my real estate broker calling me
every couple of weeks to "check how we are" and ask if we knew anyone
wanting to sell) apparently have been replenished.
She has been too busy to touch base with us recently�.
***The discussion about continuing the currency peg of the Chinese yuan
against the US dollar appears to be in the news again. This time, a
powerful advocacy group is weighing in:
A coalition of more than 50 US business, labor and farm groups is about
to petition the White House to launch an investigation into China's currency
peg and whether the dollar isn't really an illegal export subsidy.
The group's argument is that the decade-old practice of pegging the yuan
at 8.28 to the dollar is an illegal export subsidy allowing China to sell its
goods at a deep discount in the States.
The China Currency Coalition has been characterized as a "revamped
version of the Fair Currency Alliance," spearheaded by the National
Association of Manufacturers, which appears not to publicly support the
petition.
The latter association ought to ring a bell with you: The last time they were
the squeaky wheel complaining to the Bush Administration that the high
dollar was making their lives difficult in the export business, the dollar
started to fall�
***Is a triple top brewing? Ann Sosnowski of WaveStrength fame has an
update for you on gold. She writes�
"According to the Gold London Fix daily chart, US$400 seems to be the
unbreakable and unsinkable support price. Preservation of last year's price
will only last as long as gold investors can keep their teeth clean above
US$400 an ounce. Today's trading action below support is not enough to
increase worry, but the drop below this level for the fifth time this year is
enough to put some extra sugar in your tea. Just how long will gold be
considered a buy at four Alexander Hamiltons?
"This year, what we often see happening is a general rise in gold price (as
between February 12, 2004 to its breakdown point at US$400 in mid
April of this year.) The gold bubble in March presented enough momentum
to initiate a second 'out' right under the unsinkable support. Since then, the
rise in price has been slow, steady, and oscillating.
"I've heard some around here screaming 'triple top' recently. As far as I
can tell, the increase in London Fix prices and the major difference
between the two price humps of July and the previous hill, as well as the
price bump from mid August and the beginning of September, are nothing
but fool's gold. Remember that a triple top formation should occur during a
bearish trend. Right now we are seeing continuing minor highs.
"One word of warning, though, in case a triple top is brewing: If the next
minor high comes in around 410, surpassing by no more than a few dollars
the second high around 408, a 10% decline in the price of gold from
current levels is something you can bet your life on at the next Texas Hold
'Em Tournament."
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Earnings Announcements for Thursday, September 9, 2004:
Certicom Corp., National Semiconductor, Nobility Homes, and URS
Corp. are some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quotes of the Day:
"Here's an interesting fact: the Republican Convention boosted the
New York economy US$255 million. But the Democratic Convention
in Boston only netted it US$14.8 million. People wonder why it was so
much less? Sure, Democrats don't like spending their own money."
--Jay Leno, September 8, 2004
"We had a hamster, too. Let's just say ours didn't make it."
--Barbara Bush, September 2, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "But our indicators again signal gale-force profit-taking ahead,
projecting an average loss of 1.2%."
As projected, the Hang Seng spent most of the day moving down before
bottoming out at 13,013.65. A late rally limited the day's losses to 86.08
points (-0.66%) when the index closed at 13,049.96.
For tomorrow, bullish confluences again dominate in our charts. Look for
modest gains around 0.6%.
*** "Our indicators peg tomorrow's upside at 0.5%, with a looming
downside triggered by Japanese exporters at 1.3%."
At an intraday low of 11,270.53, the descent of Japan's Nikkei 225 today
was not as drastic as our indicators had let on. The index ended the day at
11,279.19, down 19.75 points or 0.17%.
The indicators point to a close repeat of today's performance.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
The phrase of the day: "Regaining traction." That's how Greenspan
summed up the economy today, citing a rebound in jobs growth in August
coupled with upward consumer spending momentum in July. Somewhat
surprisingly, though, given the rapid run-up in oil prices, Greenspan said
that inflation was under control and, in fact, that future inflation
expectations "have eased in recent months."
His comments all but assure the Fed will surprise nobody and hike interest
rates again on September 21.
***17-Month Streak Snapped. The Bank of Canada pre-empted the US
Fed today by raising the base rate of interest from a four-decade low of
2% to 2.25% - the first rate hike in 17 months.
The move comes as the Canadian economy continues to perform solidly�
but with the 4.3% annual growth rate during the second quarter (the fastest
among the G7 nations) helping to push up inflation. Core inflation rose to
1.9% in July - a whisker under the bank's 2% target rate. The consumer
price index also climbed 2.3% from July 2003. Moreover, the bank says
demand and output are running close to capacity, which may well raise
inflation further and prompt it to tighten monetary policy again on October
19.
In fact, the decision to tighten policy would arguably have come sooner
had the Canadian dollar not raced ahead so much against its US
counterpart last year, which threatened the country's manufacturers and
exporters. Since the currency peaked in early 2004, however, both have
enjoyed much better fortunes, with second-quarter exports growing 5% -
the best since 1997.
According to the bank's current projections, economic growth should hit
2.75% this year and 3.5% next year.
***Shipping Out in Malaysia. On the subject of exports, Canada isn't the
only country with bullish news. On the other side of the world in Malaysia,
exports soared 29% in July from a year earlier, fuelled by continuing robust
demand for electronic equipment and semiconductor chips.
That was the fastest pace in seven months and followed an impressive
23% climb in June, contributing greatly to the country's 8% second-
quarter GDP growth. Full-year growth is now expected to rumble in at
6.5%.
***Slowing in South Korea� But Still Stellar. South Korea's August
exports also rose at a 29% clip compared to a year earlier. But not many
countries could chalk up that kind of impressive growth and still have it be
a slowing trend! It's true. Would you believe that was the slowest pace in
nine months?
Unfortunately, domestic demand remains pretty slack, despite the Bank of
Korea's decision to cut interest rates to 3.5% a month ago in a bid to
ignite spending. South Korea is struggling amid high oil prices (the
country's is the world's fourth-largest importer of crude oil) and
consequently rising inflation. This means the government may have to turn
its attention to spending rather than relying on the bank to stimulate the
economy through interest rate cuts.
For the moment the government will cut income taxes by 1%, scrap some
sales tax, and encourage business spending by offering more generous tax
breaks.
That'll do it for today.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***Wall Street's Latest Scam Could Cost You Your Home!
"The Imaginary Real-Estate Crash of 2005"
Don't be fooled! Not only is the looming "real-estate crash" a Big Lie�
but a NEW hidden real-estate BOOM is emerging - and it's making some
people very rich! Read on�
http://www.youreletters.com/t/56852/3785361/646599/70/
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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