Title: The bubble that won't burst

The Taipan Group�s 247profits e-Dispatch

Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris

September 21-22, 2004



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***Our US real-estate �bubble� play, Impac (IMH:NYSE), is bubbling near its historic high - a 300% gain over our initial recommendation. Plus, US housing starts have unexpectedly risen again. Read on�

***That�s why we�re calling it �The Imaginary Real Estate Crash of 2005.�

Not only is the looming �real estate crash� a misrepresentation� but a new hidden real-estate boom is emerging.

Learn more.

***More on Docugate� a derailed train heading for a farmer�s market� and much more below!

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From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger



Dear Friend,

It�s like watching the slow-motion derailment of a train heading for a farmer�s market.

Docugate has already piled through the baker�s stand, leaving news confectioner Dan Rather blinking through plenty of pie on his face. It�s now bowling over the vindictive former Texas Army National Guard official Bill Burkett, who passed on the fake memos, and heading for bigger game.

Burkett claims he received the mysterious documents from a woman calling herself �Lucy Ramirez,� who had an even more mysterious stranger hand him the package at a Texas cattle market� with the instructions to burn the original pages and envelope to eliminate forensic evidence.

To make matters worse, there have been questionable communications between the broadcast network and the Kerry campaign� which may have been alluding to the contents of the �documents� in campaign literature as far back as April.

It�s a better story than most movies I�ve seen this summer!

My question: Who is Lucy Ramirez?

And where in the world is Carmen Sandiego?


***Our US real-estate �bubble� play, Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH:NYSE), is bubbling near its historic high - hovering near a 300% gain over our initial recommendation in the summer of 2001� not counting the princely dividend this stock keeps paying.

But US housing starts, too, have unexpectedly risen again. Builders broke ground on an annualized 2 million new homes in August, up 0.6% from the 1.988 million pace in July.

Construction permits fell 5.5% to a 1.952 million pace. Inventories are inching up from historic lows. Which means that we will probably see a cooling off in US real-estate price appreciation over the next couple of months� but not necessarily a cooling off in demand.



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***My colleague Brad Colburn insisted that he wanted to provide a stock pick for you today� and who am I to stand in the way of you getting your fair share of the pie?

Remember Space Devices, a small company trading under the ticker symbol SPDV:OTC-BB, which received a contract to provide the hybrid motor rocket systems and components for SpaceShipOne? On June 21, we locked in a 106% gain as the buzz surrounding the first successful private launch of a spaceship began to die down.

Brad writes:

�But the buzz is starting up again�

�SPDV has assembled and shipped the rocket motors that will be used for the upcoming historic attempt by SpaceShipOne to win the US$10 million Ansari X Prize. The hybrid rocket motors burn rubber and laughing gas.

�To win the Ansari X Prize, SpaceShipOne must successfully complete two flights currently scheduled for September 29 and October 4, 2004.

�And how�s this for buzz: the Discovery Channel will be airing a two-hour look at this project on October 2.

�SPDV is extremely optimistic about the new SpaceShipOne launches. In fact, they�re developing their own version of the SS1 called the Dream Chaser. The Dream Chaser is a reusable, piloted, suborbital space ship that could be scaled up to safely and economically transport passengers to and from low earth orbit, including the International Space Station.

�The SPDV buzz is so loud I�d swear the cicadas were coming back.

�SPDV trades for US$1.97. I�m issuing a buy under US$2.20.�



***Editor�s Note: Brad Colburn is the editor of Value Edge.

Brad has prepared the Value Edge Explosive 2004-2005 Forecast and the FREE Urgent Oil Wars Stock Report.

Access the late-breaking report right here, right now.



***Presidential Punting

Today�s tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are:

PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004: 69.2/69.9 (yesterday�s standing: 69.3/69.8)
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 30.8/32.2 (yesterday�s standing: 31.5/32.4)



Earnings Announcements for Wednesday, September 22, 2004:

AAR Corp., Analogic Corp., Bear Stearns Companies Inc., Cardiodynamics International Corp., Comtech Telecommunications Corp., ConAgra Inc., Dress Barn Inc., FedEx Corp., Global Payments Inc., Paychex Inc., and Rowe Companies Inc. are some of the companies releasing earnings.



***Quotes of the Day:

�The fact that CBS News would coordinate with the most senior levels of Sen. Kerry�s campaign to attack the president is a stunning and deeply troubling revelation.�
���� --Dan Bartlett, White House communications director, September 20, 2004


�Rather is right. There is a �core truth� here. The core truth is that Bush didn�t do anything in the National Guard remotely as irresponsible as Rather�s forgery fiasco.�

���� --
George Neumayr, September 21, 2004


�If I hear one more person tell me how lousy a candidate Kerry is and how he can�t win� Dammit, of COURSE he�s a lousy candidate - he�s a Democrat, for heavens sake! That party is so pathetic, they even lose the elections they win! What were you expecting, Bruce Springsteen heading up the ticket? Bruce would make a helluva president, but guys like him don�t run - and neither do you or I. People like Kerry run.�

���� --Michael Moore, September 21, 2004


�Kerry�s Europeanized domestic plan would set up tax penalties on capital formation, upward mobility, and the formation of job-creating businesses. For the 90 million-strong investor class, Kerry�s taxes on dividends, capital gains, and the most successful earners are a tax on the stock market - and therefore a tax on economic growth and wealth creation.�

���� --
Larry Kudlow, September 15, 2004



***WORLD OF PROFITS***

*** While oil and energy values point upward, our indicators point at a general downward trend for tomorrow, which may express itself in a loss of around 0.5%.�

We hit our downside early on as Hong Kong hit 13,154.99. But then the Hang Seng changed direction, ending the day at 13,304.48, up 83.15 points (0.63%) for the day.

Our indicators at this point allow no clear conclusion on the market�s direction tomorrow. We hedge our bets at the mildly bullish end of the spectrum of possible outcomes.


*** �
For tomorrow, we expect a breakeven day with a potential downside of around 0.3%.�

What did we tell you? We got close to the downside when the Nikkei 225 hit 11,059.95, then wrapped up the day at 11,080.87. I hope you agree when we call a loss of 1.62 points (0.01%) as pretty darn close to breakeven as you can possibly get.

For tomorrow there is some softness becoming apparent, especially in the export sector. Expect pullbacks of around 0.5%.



***DESK OF DENHOLM***

This just in from Taipan�s resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:

***Gettin� Busy at the OECD. I�m pretty sure most folks in the US aren�t too worried about this, but the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development just downgraded its US GDP forecast.

Citing �subpar� job creation and the evaporation of the steam gained from the tax cuts, the OECD said the US economy will now grow at a 4.3% pace - down from the 4.7% rate projected as recently as May.

But here�s the strange news. Despite a pretty broad sluggish spell across Europe, the OECD has actually upgraded the region�s GDP forecast from 1.6% to 2%. I�d be surprised if that came true, considering unemployment in major countries like Germany is still sky-high, domestic consumption is virtually nonexistent, and industrial production is weak. Much of the region has thus far relied on exports for its economic growth.

But the OECD left the biggest upward revision for Japan, estimating its growth will rise from 3% to 4.4%, thanks largely to a huge 10.7% boost in second-quarter capital spending. But Japan�s economy is undergoing something of a quiet spell, with investor sentiment cooling amid fears of a tech sector slowdown. Consumer spending is also rather tepid.

The revisions also come at a time when crude oil prices have soared around 40% from the start of the year, putting pressure on economies across the globe.


***Lazy in London. Oh, and here�s some encouraging news. Following yet more security breaches in London last week, leader of the House of Commons Peter Hain revealed �extremely disturbing� MI5 intelligence that showed al Qaeda has focused extensively on planning an attack on the British parliament. Not that this comes as a huge surprise. But given the events last week, the terrorists must be laughing at the pathetic security around some of Britain�s most hallowed buildings.

I�m sure you remember the scenes from last week. First, you had a guy dressed as Batman scaling a wall at Buckingham Palace and perching on a ledge for a few hours. Holy Security Breach, Batman! I jest� but, of course, this is a serious issue. How on earth did security fail this time? Perhaps they thought he WAS the security! The incident involved �Fathers 4 Justice� - the same group that showered Prime Minister Tony Blair with purple powder in the House of Commons earlier this year.

Then, a parliamentary debate was interrupted as several pro-fox hunting protesters rushed into the chamber yelling and gesticulating before being gang-tackled by the dozy guards - known as �men in tights� because of their traditional style of clothing. Quoted in the Guardian newspaper, one of the protestors said it was a �frighteningly simple� operation to carry out, one �put together on the back of an envelope 24 hours before.�

Just one day later, the Sun newspaper reported that one of its correspondents had used phony references to get hired as a waiter at Westminster - and then, after 11 days on the job, managed to infiltrate security by smuggling a fake bomb into the building on a day when security was allegedly at its highest.

Scary stuff. Talk to you tomorrow.



***TAIPAN TIDINGS***

***SPECIAL OFFER: As another 247profits e-Dispatch Membership benefit, you have the opportunity to receive a FREE two-week subscription to Investor�s Business Daily.

10 FREE issues of Investor�s Business Daily, the daily newspaper for self-directed investors. Every issue of IBD includes stock tables with IBD�s exclusive SmartSelect Ratings, coverage of institutional buying trends and 42 charts of top-rated stocks currently advancing.

Here�s where you can sign up.


J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group�s
247profits e-Dispatch Team



P.S.
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