|
The Taipan Group�s 247profits e-Dispatch Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris September 23-24, 2004
***US home loan rates celebrated the Fed�s Tuesday hike by� falling. ***Our Turkish market proxy, Turkcell (TKC:NYSE), is making news. Find out why and what investors need to know� plus more presidential punting�
(That�s good enough to turn $5,000 into $3.5 million in 3 years.) ***********************************************
US home loan rates celebrated the Fed�s Tuesday hike in prime lending rates by� falling. As US housing starts posted record levels in August, the rate on 30-year fixed-rate home loans averaged 5.7%, down from last week s average of 5.75%. This time last year, you will recall, the prime lending rate was at 1% (vs. today�s 1.75%) and home loan rates averaged 6.01%. The 15-year rate dropped to an average 5.1% from 5.13% last week, compared to 2003�s 5.3%. Interestingly, this matches nicely the observation we offered you prior to this year�s first rate hike, that the banking industry has handsome margins to play with to offset potential threats to demand (such as rising rates) by adjusting to present market conditions. Which is why we found it no surprise that our real-estate and home-loan play, Impac (IMH:NYSE), today set a new all-time record at US$27.91, with a decent chance to scratch US$28 - our 300% gain marker on the stock not counting dividends - before the next ex-dividend gate.
The deal could be worth as much as US$3 billion. There�s still plenty that can go wrong with it: Doing business with the ayatollahs is risky business, as Iran�s Islamist parliament demands veto powers over projects with foreign majority control. Already, vocal anti-Semitic hardliners accuse Turkcell of doing business in Israel. Another Turkish-Austrian consortium involved in a major airport project was kicked out of the country for the same sin. The deal has yet to be finalized with the payment of a US$370 million fee that would put the mobile license into the hands of Irancell, Turkey�s Iranian subsidiary. Turkcell is the only Turkish company listed on the NYSE. It has interests in international GSM operations in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Northern Cyprus, with a total of 3.0 million subscribers as of June 30, 2004. After a recent stock split, the TKC ADR today cost US$11.57. We think positive news in the Iran deal, in conjunction with positive news on Turkey�s EU membership, could boost the stock price over US$15.
The greatest financial attack on US investors is underway� Do nothing and you�ll lose everything! Or prepare now and make 850% by next year. Access the late-breaking report right here.
Today�s tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are: PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004: 67.0/67.4 (yesterday�s
standing: 68.6/68.8)
American Business Financial Services, Electro Rent Corp. and Williams Industries Inc are some of the companies releasing earnings.
�Conservatives
should stop slavering over Dan Rather�s scalp, and liberals should stop pretending
that noble ends justify fake-evidence means. Both should focus on the lesson
of the early �70s: From third-rate burglaries to fourth-rate forgeries, nobody
gets away with trying to corrupt American elections.�
*** �For tomorrow, our indicators exhibit a southbound convergence that foreshadows further drops between 0.5% and 1%.� Our assessment for today was right on the money. Setting a daily low at 13,179.13, Hong Kong�s Hang Seng only managed to close on a nominally positive note in the last trading minutes, bringing the index home at 13,280.43, up 8.20 points (0.06%). For tomorrow, our indicators are giddy as schoolgirls. Look for gains above 1%.
Japan�s Nikkei 225 followed our playbook, opening up and closing down, ending at 11,019.4, down 61.46 points (0.55%). For tomorrow, our export indicators promise an upside near 0.5%.
This just in from Taipan�s resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm: ***Wall Street Turns into Easy Street: Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley. Bear Stearns. Lehman Brothers Holdings. Some of Wall Street�s richest and most powerful firms. But according to Thomson Financial, things weren�t so rosy for them during the latest quarter, with the quarter expecting to report the first drop in profit for two years. Combined fiscal third-quarter losses are projected to total a hefty US$2.5 billion - a 6% fall from a year ago and down from the combined US$3.3 billion notched up during the second quarter. Their decline came as the Federal Reserve started its �measured� program of interest rate hikes, bond underwriting fees slumped 30% in the three months ending August 31, and trading activity on the NYSE in August was the slowest in two years. It�s a letdown, especially after investment banking profits doubled during the first quarter amid �very accommodative� 1% interest rates - the lowest in 50 years - and momentum gained from the 26% surge on the S&P 500 in 2003. But investors hardly had a spring in their step as volume on the NYSE slumped by more than 10% in May and June and Q2 economic growth slowed to an annualized 2.8% pace. The Securities Industry Association has revised its full-year pretax profit estimate for publicly listed NASDAQ and NYSE companies down from its April projection of US$28.4 billion to US$18.9 billion. That�s a remarkable drop.
A new study by the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers shows that US companies spent a record US$2.37 billion on Internet advertising during the second quarter - a massive 43% leap over Q2 2003. This just goes to show that web search engines and online paid search listings arguably remain the most popular way to advertise products. This accounted for 40% of all advertising revenue during the second quarter - up 11% over Q2 2003.
Following robust gains of 10% and 12.8% in May and June, July�s figures were just as impressive, with sales jumping 12% over July 2003. And with three straight months of such explosive growth, some fear demand is rising far too quickly, potentially leading to a credit overload as in the US and UK. In addition, the inflation rate ballooned to 7.2% in the 12 months through August, compared with a five-year low of 5.2% in May. To combat this, the central bank last week raised interest rates 0.25% to 16.25% - the first upward move in 19 months. And the watchword here: �moderate.� While some were looking for the bank to act more aggressively, it will stick to a moderate policy of rate hikes. I guess it had to go for something different, since the US Fed has already cornered the market on �measured� rate increases! That�s it for today. Ciao.
***Not only is the looming �real-estate crash� a Big Lie� but a new hidden real-estate boom is emerging - and it�s making some people very rich. Discover the government-issued �Secret Certificates� that could make you 10 times your money in 5 years! Access the Special Report right here.
��I sold my 400 contracts of SOHU after your email said to exit. Profit was $106,000 in three days. Hard to believe, but I�ve got the trade confirmations to prove it. Great call�� Access the Full Report right here and learn how you could grow Seven Times Wealthier.
=========================================== Keep the e-Dispatch coming to your mailbox! If you enjoy reading the e-Dispatch, help us out by "white-listing" our service... before delivery is interrupted. You can find the details here. A big thanks in advance from your faithful e-Dispatch team. ===========================================
Now made available for e-Dispatch Readers Only! Visit the 247profits e-Dispatch Blog. We update it daily. It just another way for you to access our insights and addictive stock market commentary. To access the blog, visit here.
SPECIAL OFFER: As another 247profits e-Dispatch Membership benefit, you have the opportunity to receive a FREE two-week subscription to Investor's Business Daily. 10 FREE issues of Investor's Business Daily, the daily newspaper for self-directed investors. Every issue of IBD includes stock tables with IBD's exclusive SmartSelect Ratings, coverage of institutional buying trends and 42 charts of top-rated stocks currently advancing.
Copyright © 2004 by Taipan Group LLC. All rights reserved. The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch is sent daily to a select group of investors who share the courage and foresight to stay ahead of today's markets. The Taipan Group unites the stock-picking talents of several analysts and editors. We publish a variety of monthly print newsletters, weekly and daily trading alerts, and information services. Each of the services is based on individual trading/investment philosophies or vehicles and specific investment approaches. Please note: It's not our intention to send email to anyone who doesn't want it. If you would like to remove yourself from this mailing list, please see the instructions at the bottom of this message. For more about us, and a summary of our editorial policy, please read here and here. Our Members Only service frequently referred to in the e-Dispatch includes a subscription to TAIPAN, the monthly communiqué compiled by our Taipan Think Tank, as well as special reports, rebates on conferences, and related information services. For more information on how to enjoy full Membership Privileges, please visit our home page. The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch is intended specifically for mature investors with a strong sense of individual responsibility who want to arbitrage different viewpoints to optimize their personal investment strategy. We reserve the right to remove readers we believe do not meet these criteria from our distribution list without prior notice. You are welcome to distribute this message, at your discretion, to others who you believe share the values of the Taipan Group. NOTE TO OUR READERS: Taipan Group LLC or The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch does not act as an investment advisor or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question. Taipan Group LLC expressly forbids
its writers from having a financial interest in any security that they recommend
to their readers. Furthermore, all other employees and agents of Taipan Group
LLC and its affiliate companies must wait 24 hours before following an initial
recommendation published on the Internet, or 72 hours after a printed publication
is mailed. ******* This email was sent to ******* |
Title: Wall Street, Easy Street?
