Nelayan, Your NFL Picks (Week 11) - Wrong team favored

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2004 NFL - Week 11 You are subscriber #15727 out of 17286 total. Nelayan, Week 10 Wrap-up Week was a losing week for us. Chicago's upset win was the bright spot but the other big picks (NYJ, TB and DAL) lost. I'm dissapointed in the Dallas pick as they were clearly overmatched. The fact that they lost the turnover battle in a big way didn't help and I was wrong about Dallas showing some pride and emotion. I am in shock that Parcells hasn't been able to right that ship. OK, I have to weigh in on the ABC Monday Night pre-game skit involving Terrell Owens and Nicolette Sheridan. For those of you who were offended, I am truly sorry. But, I personallys don't understand what the big stink is all about. ABC was promoting a risque show. Of course the skit would match that feel. Do you think they'd promote that show with something non-sex related? If so, you don't watch the show. That show is all about women seeking out their next guy. Sheridan's character is exactly like that. Marketing is about promoting what you are selling. If they are going to promote that show, that's exactly what the skit would have to be like. And was it racist? I don't think so. They picked Philly's highest profile, most popular player who happened to be African American. They picked one of the show's stars who happened to be caucasion. There was no racist pre-planning there. Who cares that they weren't the same race? If you try, you can turn any situation or interchange into a racist one. I believe (and I am just one opinion) that this was just the way it fell out here, based on the team that was playing and the show that was being promoted. Nothing more. That's my two cents, for what it's worth (not much, I know). Week 11 Picks I've got three strong picks this Sunday. I'm also going to have a strong pick for Monday night. You can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here. Your complimentary pick is below. Interested in checking out my premium picks? See below for ordering instructions. Good luck this weekend, Nelayan! From Last Week... ****Chicago +6 (-110) at TENNESSEE **Chicago straight-up (+200) at TENNESSEE Craig Krenzel knew how to win at Ohio State. He's doing it again in the NFL. He's 2-0 including an impressive road win agains the Giants last week. He's not going to break any records (his stats are weak) but he's making good decisions and not losing ball games. He's contributing points and leaving the bulk of the work to Anthony Thomas. The Bears defense is ranked 9th in the league. Steve McNair just isn't his old self. He's thrown nearly as many interceptions this season in six games than he throw all of last season. I don't care much if he plays or not. Tennesse is just not very good this year. I like the better defense with the momentum here. Bet 220 to win 200 on Chicago +6 and 100 to win 200 on the Bears straight-up. Result: Chicago 19, Tennessee 17 - Chicago won outright on a late safety. *****BUFFALO +1 (-110) vs. St. Louis (Check latest line) Wow. The Rams beat up on the Seahawks last week. Pretty impressive. Yes, it was. But as I've written here several times, the 'Hawks are overrated. I give St. Louis credit for that win but they are not the best team in this week's matchup. Buffalo, after starting poorly, has become a respectable offensive team behind the legs of Willis McGahee. And, they have an awesome defense. Everyone and their mother was on the Seahawks last week and they saw St. Louis win in easy fashion. This, combined with Buffalo's crushing at the hands of the Patriots last week sets us up nicely for this pick today. That Buffalo loss was to the best team in the league. Don't read too much into it. To be getting points here at home is a nice blessing. St. Louis will be playing outside in November on grass. Not a good combination for them. Also, St. Louis has been known to underperform late in the season. In fact, over the past three seasons, the Rams are 1-7 ATS against teams with losing records. They are also 3-10 ATS as road favorites over the same time span. Winning teams coming off home upset wins over division opponents follow those games up with ATS losses about 70% of the time as the public overreacts to that big surprising win. The public is wrong on this one as Buffalo should be favored. Grab the favor and take the better team as a home dog. Bet 220 to win 200 on Buffalo. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline) I have three more premium picks for paying subscribers. Order for just $39. NFL Premium Picks My premium picks packages include my best picks and detailed analysis on every selected game. Choose from: This week's top selections: $39 A full month of top selections: $119 The remainder of the season: save the most! 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