Dear Jacob, you cannot kill a virus. It is not alive, but a complex chemical compound that interferes with the chemistry of the host. So why don't you work on the part of your conept over the week-end and present the concept?
Cheers, Tim On Fri, 19 Feb 2021 12:55:32 -0500 Jacob Keller <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't think seeing the big picture resolves, or even addresses, the > question of possibly using a live vaccine. Some big-picture > considerations favor each side. > > The concern of mutation is a grave one, and an unknown. I would point > out, however, that the same considerations apply to the wild virus > currently scourging the planet (well, and every other virus currently > slinking around the biome). The distinction would be, I guess, that > we would be actively contributing in some way. On the other hand, > maybe being passive is like not throwing a rope to a drowning man? > > Maybe having a "v-day" would address this: introduce the > virus-vaccine at well-chosen locations, aka super-spreader events, > which, like well-placed demolition dynamite, would cause a "flash > pan-infection." Funnily, this would require all of the pandemic rules > to be turned on their heads! Presumably this generates herd immunity > within a couple of weeks, as well as its fair share of adverse > reactions and deaths. As a safety measure, have two orthogonal > chemical kill switches based on plentiful inexpensive well-tolerated > compounds, say a vitamin or pesticide (yes, pesticide, that stuff > that's always sprayed all over your food). Use those to quench the > vaccine before mutation, say 6-8 wks. Then, back to normal life, and > start honing similar tools for coming pandemics, a "holohomoimmune > system." > > Here's a question to the informed-consent hawks: would exposing > everybody to the virus while providing two compounds to block > completely the effects be considered a valid opt-in/out? Or what if > the default was switched, such that both compounds were required for > infection, and therefore one had to actively opt in? > > I don't know--it seems that many of the objections to the idea are > based on the bioethical concept "first do no harm," but that > principle is not necessarily adopted in all cases. > > One of the best things I learned in med school: > > Medicine is, fundamentally, "uncertainty management:" > > there are almost never any certainties in medicine, and one has to > use a Bayesian framework and a few bioethical principles to figure > out what to do next. > > Anyway, rest assured, I have not yet ordered the primers for creating > such a virus-vaccine... > > All the best, and have a good weekend everyone, > > Jacob > > > > On Fri, Feb 19, 2021 at 5:54 AM Robbie Joosten > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Hi Tim, > > > > Very good points. The big picture is hard to grasp and we end up > > taking political choices rather than anything else. I'm very glad > > that we can outsource these choices to others every four year here. > > > > Lockdowns may save lives in the here and now, but the global > > economic damage makes life for others much harder to a point that > > it may actually kill them. Economic decline in the First World may > > be something with which that we can deal but, like viruses, it > > blows over to other parts of the world where economic growth is the > > real life saver. Does the prolonging of a reasonably measurable > > number well-lived lives in the West outweigh the extinguishing of a > > hard-to-assess number of much younger lives in the rest of the > > world? I'm glad I don't have to make that call. > > > > Cheers, > > Robbie > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: CCP4 bulletin board <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Tim > > > Gruene > > > Sent: Friday, February 19, 2021 09:33 > > > To: [email protected] > > > Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Contagious, Self-Distributing "Vaccines?" > > > > > > Hi Jessica, > > > > > > one comment: death cannot be prevented. It is a certainty as soon > > > as you are born (well, 9 months before). > > > > > > While this seems an obvious subtlety, many of the current > > > measures seems to be influenced by the (probably unconscious) > > > belief one can defeat > > death. > > > We can only reduce the risk to die at a certain moment and of a > > > certain cause. > > > > > > The example of rabbits in Australia also illustrates how simple > > > minded humans generally are: we focus on one thing, but usually > > > fail to take a > > larger > > > picture into account. > > > > > > Cheers, > > > Tim > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, 18 Feb 2021 08:16:59 -0800 Jessica Bruhn > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > > > There have been some really excellent points raised by others > > > > (informed consent, feasibility, etc), but I would like to share > > > > a story about another time humans tried to release a virus on a > > > > wild population in order to further an arguably noble goal: > > > > > > > > In the 1850s European rabbits were introduced in Australia for > > > > sport hunting. They quickly did what bunnies do and started to > > > > become a real problem. In the 1950s, scientists decided to > > > > introduce myxoma virus to Australia, which is 90-99% fatal for > > > > European rabbits, but less lethal for the native rabbits. They > > > > intentionally released this virus and in the first year the > > > > mortality rate was 99.8% for the European rabbits. Yay, > > > > right??? Unfortunately, in the subsequent year the mortality > > > > rate fell to 25% and steadily continued to fall until it was > > > > lower than the reproductive rate of the European rabbits. The > > > > host-virus interaction played itself out: less-virulent viruses > > > > arose and resistant rabbits were selected for. > > > > > > > > To me it seems unwise to assume a replication competent virus > > > > (engineered or not) would refrain from mutating and adapting > > > > upon release, especially over the time course that would be > > > > required to infect all 7 billion+ humans on this planet. To me, > > > > I feel our options are (1) reach herd immunity through natural > > > > infection and accept the preventable deaths of many millions of > > > > people or (2) continue with non-pharmaceutical interventions > > > > (mask wearing, distancing, etc) until we can vaccinate enough > > > > people to reach herd immunity and hopefully by that time we > > > > have robust testing and treatment options available for those > > > > who continue to fall ill after we reach herd immunity. We as > > > > humans did something amazing by producing multiple safe and > > > > effective vaccines in less than one year, and I would like us > > > > to continue trying to save as many lives as possible by > > > > employing these vaccines as widely as possible. > > > > > > > > Anyways, take care. I know the pandemic is hard on all of us. > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Jessica > > > > > > > > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 6:15 AM Patrick Shaw Stewart > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > I agree with those who say that A and B are usually > > > > > incompatible. > > > > > > > > > > If we're like > > > > > chickens-in-a-barn-that-have-been-infected-with-bird-flu, the > > > > > virus very rapidly becomes more virulent (hospital and > > > > > care-home infections?). It's hard for a virus to infect your > > > > > nose and throat quickly, and then stop. > > > > > > > > > > In the medium term the herd will build up some immunity and > > > > > then we'll become more like wandering albatrosses: the virus > > > > > has to keep us on the move if it's going to get itself near > > > > > another susceptible host. > > > > > > > > > > IMO the way a *respiratory *virus tries to "have its cake and > > > > > eat it" - that is, get as much of both A and B as possible - > > > > > is to develop thermal sensitivity. I.e. infect nose and > > > > > throat but keep out of lungs and brain : > > > > > > > > > > https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0389/v1 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thanks, Patrick > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 9:46 PM Edwin Pozharski > > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > >> I guess for such vehicle to be "extremely contagious" (or > > > > >> contagious at all for that matter) it should be capable of > > > > >> rapidly multiplying inside the host, so that it outruns > > > > >> immune system mediated destruction for at least some time in > > > > >> order to be present in high enough concentration to > > > > >> effectively spread via aerosols. Given the range of > > > > >> immunodeficiencies present in any population, you are > > > > >> essentially guaranteed to kill at least some people whose > > > > >> immune system will not be able to cope with rapidly > > > > >> multiplying virus. You can theoretically fine tune the > > > > >> lethality of such virus to make sure that number of people > > > > >> you thus murder will be less than those that die either in > > > > >> no vaccine or traditional vaccination scenario, but that > > > > >> would be ethical equivalent of that modern crypto fascist > > > > >> suggestion that we just have to take it easy until herd > > > > >> immunity is established, even though few million > > > > >> grandparents will die in the process while the rest of us > > > > >> enjoy indoor dining. > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 12:33 PM Jacob Keller > > > > >> <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > >> > > > > >>> It would seem to me that it should be possible to generate > > > > >>> versions of the Covid virus that would: > > > > >>> > > > > >>> A. be extremely contagious and yet B. be clinically benign, > > > > >>> and C. confer immunity to the original covid virus. > > > > >>> > > > > >>> If, then, this virus could be released, with appropriate > > > > >>> "kill switch" safeguards built in, would this not solve the > > > > >>> world's pandemic problems? Is there any reason, > > > > >>> practically, why this approach would not be feasible? > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Maybe we don't really know enough to manipulate A, B, C yet? > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Or maybe it's too scary for primetime...nightmare > > > > >>> bio-warfare apocalypse? > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Has this sort of thing been done, or does it have a name? > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Jacob > > > > >>> -- > > > > >>> > > > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Jacob Pearson Keller > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Assistant Professor > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Department of Pharmacology and Molecular Therapeutics > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Uniformed Services University > > > > >>> > > > > >>> 4301 Jones Bridge Road > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Bethesda MD 20814 > > > > >>> > > > > >>> [email protected]; [email protected] > > > > >>> > > > > >>> Cell: (301)592-7004 > > > > >>> > > > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > > >>> > > > > >>> ------------------------------ > > > > >>> > > > > >>> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following > > > > >>> link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA- > > > JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > > >>> > > > > >> > > > > >> ------------------------------ > > > > >> > > > > >> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following > > > > >> link: > > > > >> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > > > [email protected] Douglas Instruments Ltd. > > > > > Douglas House, East Garston, Hungerford, Berkshire, RG17 > > > > > 7HD, UK Directors: Patrick Shaw Stewart, Peter Baldock, > > > > > Stefan Kolek > > > > > > > > > > http://www.douglas.co.uk > > > > > Tel: 44 (0) 148-864-9090 US toll-free 1-877-225-2034 > > > > > Regd. 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