I don't think seeing the big picture resolves, or even addresses, the question of possibly using a live vaccine. Some big-picture considerations favor each side.
The concern of mutation is a grave one, and an unknown. I would point out, however, that the same considerations apply to the wild virus currently scourging the planet (well, and every other virus currently slinking around the biome). The distinction would be, I guess, that we would be actively contributing in some way. On the other hand, maybe being passive is like not throwing a rope to a drowning man? Maybe having a "v-day" would address this: introduce the virus-vaccine at well-chosen locations, aka super-spreader events, which, like well-placed demolition dynamite, would cause a "flash pan-infection." Funnily, this would require all of the pandemic rules to be turned on their heads! Presumably this generates herd immunity within a couple of weeks, as well as its fair share of adverse reactions and deaths. As a safety measure, have two orthogonal chemical kill switches based on plentiful inexpensive well-tolerated compounds, say a vitamin or pesticide (yes, pesticide, that stuff that's always sprayed all over your food). Use those to quench the vaccine before mutation, say 6-8 wks. Then, back to normal life, and start honing similar tools for coming pandemics, a "holohomoimmune system." Here's a question to the informed-consent hawks: would exposing everybody to the virus while providing two compounds to block completely the effects be considered a valid opt-in/out? Or what if the default was switched, such that both compounds were required for infection, and therefore one had to actively opt in? I don't know--it seems that many of the objections to the idea are based on the bioethical concept "first do no harm," but that principle is not necessarily adopted in all cases. One of the best things I learned in med school: Medicine is, fundamentally, "uncertainty management:" there are almost never any certainties in medicine, and one has to use a Bayesian framework and a few bioethical principles to figure out what to do next. Anyway, rest assured, I have not yet ordered the primers for creating such a virus-vaccine... All the best, and have a good weekend everyone, Jacob On Fri, Feb 19, 2021 at 5:54 AM Robbie Joosten <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi Tim, > > Very good points. The big picture is hard to grasp and we end up taking > political choices rather than anything else. I'm very glad that we can > outsource these choices to others every four year here. > > Lockdowns may save lives in the here and now, but the global economic > damage makes life for others much harder to a point that it may actually > kill them. Economic decline in the First World may be something with which > that we can deal but, like viruses, it blows over to other parts of the > world where economic growth is the real life saver. Does the prolonging of > a reasonably measurable number well-lived lives in the West outweigh the > extinguishing of a hard-to-assess number of much younger lives in the rest > of the world? I'm glad I don't have to make that call. > > Cheers, > Robbie > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: CCP4 bulletin board <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Tim > > Gruene > > Sent: Friday, February 19, 2021 09:33 > > To: [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Contagious, Self-Distributing "Vaccines?" > > > > Hi Jessica, > > > > one comment: death cannot be prevented. It is a certainty as soon as you > > are born (well, 9 months before). > > > > While this seems an obvious subtlety, many of the current measures seems > > to be influenced by the (probably unconscious) belief one can defeat > death. > > We can only reduce the risk to die at a certain moment and of a certain > > cause. > > > > The example of rabbits in Australia also illustrates how simple minded > > humans generally are: we focus on one thing, but usually fail to take a > larger > > picture into account. > > > > Cheers, > > Tim > > > > > > > > On Thu, 18 Feb 2021 08:16:59 -0800 Jessica Bruhn > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > There have been some really excellent points raised by others > > > (informed consent, feasibility, etc), but I would like to share a > > > story about another time humans tried to release a virus on a wild > > > population in order to further an arguably noble goal: > > > > > > In the 1850s European rabbits were introduced in Australia for sport > > > hunting. They quickly did what bunnies do and started to become a real > > > problem. In the 1950s, scientists decided to introduce myxoma virus to > > > Australia, which is 90-99% fatal for European rabbits, but less lethal > > > for the native rabbits. They intentionally released this virus and in > > > the first year the mortality rate was 99.8% for the European rabbits. > > > Yay, right??? Unfortunately, in the subsequent year the mortality rate > > > fell to 25% and steadily continued to fall until it was lower than the > > > reproductive rate of the European rabbits. The host-virus interaction > > > played itself out: less-virulent viruses arose and resistant rabbits > > > were selected for. > > > > > > To me it seems unwise to assume a replication competent virus > > > (engineered or not) would refrain from mutating and adapting upon > > > release, especially over the time course that would be required to > > > infect all 7 billion+ humans on this planet. To me, I feel our options > > > are (1) reach herd immunity through natural infection and accept the > > > preventable deaths of many millions of people or (2) continue with > > > non-pharmaceutical interventions (mask wearing, distancing, etc) until > > > we can vaccinate enough people to reach herd immunity and hopefully by > > > that time we have robust testing and treatment options available for > > > those who continue to fall ill after we reach herd immunity. We as > > > humans did something amazing by producing multiple safe and effective > > > vaccines in less than one year, and I would like us to continue trying > > > to save as many lives as possible by employing these vaccines as > > > widely as possible. > > > > > > Anyways, take care. I know the pandemic is hard on all of us. > > > > > > Best regards, > > > Jessica > > > > > > On Thu, Feb 18, 2021 at 6:15 AM Patrick Shaw Stewart > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > I agree with those who say that A and B are usually incompatible. > > > > > > > > If we're like > > > > chickens-in-a-barn-that-have-been-infected-with-bird-flu, the virus > > > > very rapidly becomes more virulent (hospital and care-home > > > > infections?). It's hard for a virus to infect your nose and throat > > > > quickly, and then stop. > > > > > > > > In the medium term the herd will build up some immunity and then > > > > we'll become more like wandering albatrosses: the virus has to keep > > > > us on the move if it's going to get itself near another susceptible > > > > host. > > > > > > > > IMO the way a *respiratory *virus tries to "have its cake and eat > > > > it" - that is, get as much of both A and B as possible - is to > > > > develop thermal sensitivity. I.e. infect nose and throat but keep > > > > out of lungs and brain : > > > > > > > > https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0389/v1 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thanks, Patrick > > > > > > > > > > > > On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 9:46 PM Edwin Pozharski > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > >> I guess for such vehicle to be "extremely contagious" (or > > > >> contagious at all for that matter) it should be capable of rapidly > > > >> multiplying inside the host, so that it outruns immune system > > > >> mediated destruction for at least some time in order to be present > > > >> in high enough concentration to effectively spread via aerosols. > > > >> Given the range of immunodeficiencies present in any population, > > > >> you are essentially guaranteed to kill at least some people whose > > > >> immune system will not be able to cope with rapidly multiplying > > > >> virus. You can theoretically fine tune the lethality of such virus > > > >> to make sure that number of people you thus murder will be less > > > >> than those that die either in no vaccine or traditional vaccination > > > >> scenario, but that would be ethical equivalent of that modern > > > >> crypto fascist suggestion that we just have to take it easy until > > > >> herd immunity is established, even though few million grandparents > > > >> will die in the process while the rest of us enjoy indoor dining. > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 12:33 PM Jacob Keller > > > >> <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> > > > >>> It would seem to me that it should be possible to generate > > > >>> versions of the Covid virus that would: > > > >>> > > > >>> A. be extremely contagious and yet B. be clinically benign, and C. > > > >>> confer immunity to the original covid virus. > > > >>> > > > >>> If, then, this virus could be released, with appropriate "kill > > > >>> switch" safeguards built in, would this not solve the world's > > > >>> pandemic problems? Is there any reason, practically, why this > > > >>> approach would not be feasible? > > > >>> > > > >>> Maybe we don't really know enough to manipulate A, B, C yet? > > > >>> > > > >>> Or maybe it's too scary for primetime...nightmare bio-warfare > > > >>> apocalypse? > > > >>> > > > >>> Has this sort of thing been done, or does it have a name? > > > >>> > > > >>> Jacob > > > >>> -- > > > >>> > > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > >>> > > > >>> Jacob Pearson Keller > > > >>> > > > >>> Assistant Professor > > > >>> > > > >>> Department of Pharmacology and Molecular Therapeutics > > > >>> > > > >>> Uniformed Services University > > > >>> > > > >>> 4301 Jones Bridge Road > > > >>> > > > >>> Bethesda MD 20814 > > > >>> > > > >>> [email protected]; [email protected] > > > >>> > > > >>> Cell: (301)592-7004 > > > >>> > > > >>> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > >>> > > > >>> ------------------------------ > > > >>> > > > >>> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > > > >>> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA- > > JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > >>> > > > >> > > > >> ------------------------------ > > > >> > > > >> To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > > > >> https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > > [email protected] Douglas Instruments Ltd. > > > > Douglas House, East Garston, Hungerford, Berkshire, RG17 7HD, UK > > > > Directors: Patrick Shaw Stewart, Peter Baldock, Stefan Kolek > > > > > > > > http://www.douglas.co.uk > > > > Tel: 44 (0) 148-864-9090 US toll-free 1-877-225-2034 > > > > Regd. England 2177994, VAT Reg. GB 480 7371 36 > > > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > > > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > > > > > > > > > > ############################################################### > > ####### > > > ## > > > > > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > > > > This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a > > > mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are > > > available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ > > > > > > > > -- > > -- > > Tim Gruene > > Head of the Centre for X-ray Structure Analysis Faculty of Chemistry > > University of Vienna > > > > Phone: +43-1-4277-70202 > > > > GPG Key ID = A46BEE1A > > > > ############################################################### > > ######### > > > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > > > This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a > > mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are > available at > > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ > > ######################################################################## > > To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: > https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 > > This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a > mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are > available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/ > -- +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Jacob Pearson Keller Assistant Professor Department of Pharmacology and Molecular Therapeutics Uniformed Services University 4301 Jones Bridge Road Bethesda MD 20814 [email protected]; [email protected] Cell: (301)592-7004 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/
