Charlie What you say is very disturbing. I can’t see how you can do science at all without having a model. It is most likely that the people you refer to have a model but don’t realise it. If this is the case, the model is likely to be a very poor one. A model should be a useful simplification of a complex system in which both the parameters of the model and the values assigned to these parameters are clear.
A good model of a 5G mobile phone mast should be able to predict the amount of cancers it is likely to cause. However, politicians who oppose the construction of the phone mast (in order to gain votes) will argue that scientists can’t prove they don’t cause cancer. This happened in the UK (in Bath) and of course the politician was formally correct but their model meant one should not do anything. For those still doubtful about the what a model is see, for example, https://utw10426.utweb.utexas.edu/Topics/Models/Text.html though of course there are many other sources Still all good fun to discuss. Colin From: Carter, Charlie <car...@med.unc.edu> Sent: 06 November 2022 21:19 To: Nave, Colin (DLSLtd,RAL,LSCI) <colin.n...@diamond.ac.uk> Cc: CCP4BB@jiscmail.ac.uk Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Another folding AI Colin, A former graduate student of mine alerted me to Box GEP, Hunter WG, Hunter JS. 1978. Statistics for Experimenters. New York: Wiley Interscience in ~1984. I bought a new copy then and have very likely spent more time inside that book than any other over the years since then. So I’m entirely in your court about Box’s contributions. On the other hand, as I diverged from crystallography into mechanistic enzymology and other areas, I began to realize that comments such as those you cited also have had the adverse affect of persuading people not to build models at all and even to induce real skepticism about building and testing models. I find that a shame. Charlie On Nov 6, 2022, at 3:12 PM, Nave, Colin (DLSLtd,RAL,LSCI) <000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk<mailto:000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>> wrote: You don't often get email from 000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk<mailto:000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>. Learn why this is important<https://aka.ms/LearnAboutSenderIdentification> All these quotes are great fun and worth keeping in mind, along with many others. I hadn’t realised that the creationists had adopted James Clark Maxwell as one of their own. However he didn’t go as far as one present day scientist who believes the earth is no more than 10,000 years old. Which discipline? Palaeontology of course. This person is not even some old fossil. I always liked George Box’s comments about models. I remember Eleanor Dodson saying, probably at some CCP4 refinement study weekend, that a structure obtained by protein crystallography was like a curate’s egg. She might have predated George Box with this thought. There should not be any doubt that AF2 models are useful though. The question is how far their usefulness extends. From: CCP4 bulletin board <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK<mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>> On Behalf Of Bryan Lepore Sent: 05 November 2022 17:03 To: CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK<mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK> Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Another folding AI And of course, "... all models are approximations. Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne in mind...." Box, G. E. P.; Draper, N. R. (1987) Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces John Wiley & Sons "Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers abroad." Box, George E. P. (1976) "Science and statistics"<http://www-sop.inria.fr/members/Ian.Jermyn/philosophy/writings/Boxonmaths.pdf> Journal of the American Statistical Association<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journal_of_the_American_Statistical_Association> 71 (356): 791-799 doi<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doi_(identifier)>:10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949<https://doi.org/10.1080%2F01621459.1976.10480949> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong ________________________________ To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 -- This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential, copyright and or privileged material, and are for the use of the intended addressee only. If you are not the intended addressee or an authorised recipient of the addressee please notify us of receipt by returning the e-mail and do not use, copy, retain, distribute or disclose the information in or attached to the e-mail. Any opinions expressed within this e-mail are those of the individual and not necessarily of Diamond Light Source Ltd. Diamond Light Source Ltd. cannot guarantee that this e-mail or any attachments are free from viruses and we cannot accept liability for any damage which you may sustain as a result of software viruses which may be transmitted in or with the message. Diamond Light Source Limited (company no. 4375679). Registered in England and Wales with its registered office at Diamond House, Harwell Science and Innovation Campus, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0DE, United Kingdom ________________________________ To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the CCP4BB list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/WA-JISC.exe?SUBED1=CCP4BB&A=1 This message was issued to members of www.jiscmail.ac.uk/CCP4BB, a mailing list hosted by www.jiscmail.ac.uk, terms & conditions are available at https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/policyandsecurity/
