Title: "Free speech is meant to protect unpopular speech
One PRIMARY quibble:

"Good. Cheaper labor means cheaper products, which means consumers have more money left over to buy other things, which creates more jobs, and means consumers can buy more things. This is comparative advantage. We shouldn't be worried about jobs moving overseas. What we should be worried about is production moving overseas (i.e. the trade deficit). The past fifty years has seen a massive exodus of production, due to excessive taxes and government regulations such as the minimum wage. The only reason this hasn't hurt us too much yet is that the United States has been extended an almost infinite line of credit by countries who falsely assume that this benefits them in the long run. (They are beginning to rethink this strategy now.)"

Cheaper labor overseas means unemployment or underemployment here, at least in the short term. Those FORMER consumers will have no money left to buy other things and keep the cycle going. They will be trying to survive and meet their existing commitments on less money rather than more money. As the "Unemployed 6 months or over" crowd passes the previous record of 1948, I am less and less enthralled at the concept of my job being outsourced to Bangalore.

In the meantime, I kind of agree with this:

"I think your implication is that, without the Fed, who would protect us from criminally greedy capitalists? But the Fed is not a magical entity that, by existing as an unelected body of bureaucrats, has some special power to weed out greed from the economy, allowing all to prosper in a world where everyone thinks of others before themselves. We already have a legislative and executive branch. They can make and enforce laws. Those who are dishonest should go to prison. Those are are incompetent should go bankrupt. (Instead, they get government subsidies.) And before you say, "It's more complex than that," let me respond with, "No it isn't." ;)"

And this:

""Those who are dishonest should go to prison. Those are are incompetent should go bankrupt." This applies to the derivatives market pretty well. The derivatives in question were sold at AAA ratings. If this was due to dishonesty, those responsible should go to prison. If due to incompetence of the ratings agencies, then the ones who rated them AAA should rightly receive some competition from ratings agencies that have a better perspective on how the economy works.

The Fed didn't create derivatives, but it did create the economic environment where derivatives speculation and highly-leveraged hedge funds would prosper (in the short term). It did this, as it always does, by extending easy credit at below-market interest rates, and giving implicit guarantees on debt (for businesses which were "too big to fail")."

>From what I've read, I would like the Austrian School Economics rather than the mess we have now.

I start to have trouble here:

"If A has displaced B in the market, it is because A has provided a product at a price that consumers find preferable to B's product at B's price. Now this is very sad for the employees of B, who no longer have jobs. It's true that some of them may be quite worse off as a result. However, to consider only B would be to ignore the much larger group that is all other consumers and industries. They benefit very much from this occurrence. If A is selling essentially the same product that B sold, but at a lower price, then consumers can buy more of A's product. This allows A to hire more employees, which means that on the whole, more jobs exist now than before. This works its way backwards through the whole industry that supplies A's capital goods as well. Consumers can also choose to buy the same amount of A's product, but spend the savings on other goods, which benefits all other industries, and allows them to hire more employees.""

And this is where I really don't want to go:

"Granted, the higher the rate of "creative destruction," the more unemployment there will be, as workers must train themselves for new jobs. But the rate of creative destruction is also directly proportional to increased prosperity as outlined above. To limit it is to limit the growth of prosperity."

"Train [myself] for new jobs." Great. NOT. I love what I do. Where I do it is becoming unpopular and incrementally more insane, but what I am doing is what I love. It's most difficult to kiss a 30 year career good-bye. I'm trying to go through with the DB2 certification, but I don't see the payoff in switching programming languages and all of that rot. Particularly where the pay is less and the jobs are almost as non-existent as where I'm at NOW.

When my wife in the public schools starts out-earning me, then I'm in the wrong line of work.

David

"Free speech is meant to protect unpopular speech. Popular speech, by definition, needs no protection."—Neal Boortz

 



Kevin Nardi wrote:
Hi Billy,

Thanks for the response. Here is a rather long-winded and hopefully not-too-ranty response to your response.

However, your assumption seems to be that laissez faire is the
font of all economic good and if only we got rid of the Fed , then Utopia
would be around the corner.

I am indeed a fan of laissez-faire, though I am not quite that starry-eyed. :)

Trouble is, our economy, like all advanced economies, is multi-dimensional, a fact
that laissez faire theory doesn't really allow for.

What do you mean by "multi-dimensional?"
 
Smithians assume an "innocent marketplace"
when pure competition not only can exist but necessarily will exist   -as long as the
big bad government keeps out of things.

I do not assume an innocent marketplace, and that has not been my understanding of Smith's philosophy either. I contend that while pure competition cannot exist in all markets, it can exist in almost all markets, and that the closer you get to pure competition, the better the marketplace is for industry as a whole and consumers as a whole.

This model has never been true and can never become true.
 
Too many special interests.

Special interests are served much better by a powerful central bank. They can then spend money on lobbyists to grant themselves special privileges. Without the powerful central bank, they have no one to lobby. A free market is better at combating special interests because no one gets special treatment by government.
 
Too much unfair competition, the equivalent of a butcher with his thumb on the scale.

A butcher who puts his thumb on the scale, in a free market, while find himself out of business as his customers go across the street to the honest, cheaper butcher. It is only in the absence of competition that the dishonest butcher benefits from dishonesty. (Consider the special case when the butcher in question is Goldman Sachs. With that huge loan from the government, they became one of the only buyers on the market. When sellers have no one to choose from but Goldman Sachs, that gives the "butcher" the opportunity to be dishonest, because there is no other butcher to go to.)
 
Too many outside players  -multinationals and foreign gvts-  who could care less
  about our rules or priorities.

Could you elaborate?

One problem cannot be attributed to Smith himself, since he wrote a whole book
about one of the issues you raised, moral hazards. Essentially he said that unless
a society has a strong moral culture the economy will necessarily be cutthroat,
unjust, avaricious, and you name it.

This is not what I mean by "moral hazard." I use the term the way it is most commonly used in finance today, that is, when risk is displaced from A to B, then A behaves differently than it otherwise would. This is not necessarily because A is immoral. It is simply a consequence of displacing risk. Economies don't work unless risk is factored into decision-making.

And no-one can possibly say that American culture as it currently exists has a
strong moral foundation. If anything , it has an amoral foundation based on
unfettered greed, or at least obliviousness to the common good.

I agree, but I would argue that greed is apparent everywhere, and also that there is nothing that can be done about it (at least, not by mandate of government). This is precisely why the free market works, because it turns the sin of greed into something that benefits everyone. This is Adam Smith's "invisible hand."

In other words, dismantling the Fed, I guess this is your underlying objective,
simply would create a new set of problems.

I think your implication is that, without the Fed, who would protect us from criminally greedy capitalists? But the Fed is not a magical entity that, by existing as an unelected body of bureaucrats, has some special power to weed out greed from the economy, allowing all to prosper in a world where everyone thinks of others before themselves. We already have a legislative and executive branch. They can make and enforce laws. Those who are dishonest should go to prison. Those are are incompetent should go bankrupt. (Instead, they get government subsidies.) And before you say, "It's more complex than that," let me respond with, "No it isn't." ;)

There still would be capital flight, either to Delaware or the Caymans,

Good. Investors moving money from high-risk to low-risk investments is beneficial to everyone.

Also, remember that countries are high-risk for investment precisely when their governments are more likely to effect significant changes in monetary policy. Markets in comparatively laissez-faire economies are at much lower risk from political turmoil.
 
there still would be shipment of jobs overseas,

Good. Cheaper labor means cheaper products, which means consumers have more money left over to buy other things, which creates more jobs, and means consumers can buy more things. This is comparative advantage. We shouldn't be worried about jobs moving overseas. What we should be worried about is production moving overseas (i.e. the trade deficit). The past fifty years has seen a massive exodus of production, due to excessive taxes and government regulations such as the minimum wage. The only reason this hasn't hurt us too much yet is that the United States has been extended an almost infinite line of credit by countries who falsely assume that this benefits them in the long run. (They are beginning to rethink this strategy now.)

there still would be dangerous levels of technology transfer,

Not sure in what sense you mean this. If you mean the sharing of skills and technology with other countries, then I think we disagree about how dangerous this is. If you mean the relative loss in technological advantage, then I would say that this is just one of the results of not being competitive as a nation (which of course I argue is the fault of too much government taxation and regulation).
 
and much else. Worse, there would be additional woes
to contemplate, we can be sure of that even if exactly what is currently unclear.

Again, I disagree that the Fed has magical powers.

After all, did the Fed create derivatives ? I don't think so, in fact the major headaches
caused by derivatives blind-sided the Fed, at least according to Greenspan.
In a previous decade the big issue was the wild gambling behavior of hedge funds,
also outside the purview of the Fed.

"Those who are dishonest should go to prison. Those are are incompetent should go bankrupt." This applies to the derivatives market pretty well. The derivatives in question were sold at AAA ratings. If this was due to dishonesty, those responsible should go to prison. If due to incompetence of the ratings agencies, then the ones who rated them AAA should rightly receive some competition from ratings agencies that have a better perspective on how the economy works.

The Fed didn't create derivatives, but it did create the economic environment where derivatives speculation and highly-leveraged hedge funds would prosper (in the short term). It did this, as it always does, by extending easy credit at below-market interest rates, and giving implicit guarantees on debt (for businesses which were "too big to fail").

As well, the laissez faire values of the Bushies made sure that vital regulations
were junked so that margins could go to hell, basically, with leverage ratios
sometimes around 25 or 30, when 10 or so is the most that is prudent.

Why should government dictate prudence? Won't imprudent investors lose their money? Isn't that enough to discourage imprudence? Government is only in the business of dictating prudence when it is also bailing out the imprudent businesses that failed. This is one of the many reasons that it shouldn't be bailing out failed businesses.

The problem in this case is that government encouraged imprudence through far-below-market interest rates.

Then there is the anti-Fed, at least by way of metaphor, the international financial
system which moves trillions of dollars around, almost by the hour, chasing
fractional gains to be multiplied millions of times over to yield billions in
unearned profits. This destabilizes every nations' best efforts to create
sustainable economies for their populations.

I'm not sure what this has to do with the Fed. If you want to make speculation on leverage illegal, that can be done without the Fed. I would argue, however, that speculators actually smooth out the prices of assets, at the macro level anyway--as they make educated guesses on what the price of an asset is going to be, they even out the graph between then and now. If they are wrong, they lose money--so it is in their very best interest to know more about the markets than anyone else. In so pursuing their own selfish gain, they act as vital guides to market prices--prices move to "equilibrium" more quickly because of them.

It is also a very dangerous practice, and the vast majority actually end up subsidizing markets with their own money. Which is good for everyone except the speculators that lose.

Yet you seem to think such things can be ignored with impugnity.

Rather, I think that the free market is much better at not ignoring them than government.

As for "creative destruction," sure, Schumpeter is sometimes right, maybe
even often right. But ALWAYS right ? ? ?

If A has displaced B in the market, it is because A has provided a product at a price that consumers find preferable to B's product at B's price. Now this is very sad for the employees of B, who no longer have jobs. It's true that some of them may be quite worse off as a result. However, to consider only B would be to ignore the much larger group that is all other consumers and industries. They benefit very much from this occurrence. If A is selling essentially the same product that B sold, but at a lower price, then consumers can buy more of A's product. This allows A to hire more employees, which means that on the whole, more jobs exist now than before. This works its way backwards through the whole industry that supplies A's capital goods as well. Consumers can also choose to buy the same amount of A's product, but spend the savings on other goods, which benefits all other industries, and allows them to hire more employees.

Granted, the higher the rate of "creative destruction," the more unemployment there will be, as workers must train themselves for new jobs. But the rate of creative destruction is also directly proportional to increased prosperity as outlined above. To limit it is to limit the growth of prosperity.

Because of this False Absolute we now have a hollowed out  economy with
a way too large section of our industrial base now in China, Korea, Japan, and
elsewhere. And some industries are necessary for basic national security.
Let electronics vanish from the USA ?  We have almost done exactly that
and no longer produce TV sets, CD players, and you name it, or only produce
a fraction of what we could manufacture, because it supposedly is good
to maximize profits at the expense of just about everything else. But this
isn't sound economic policy, it is social and political irresponsibility.

So you think we don't have enough tariffs? I disagree with the idea that exporting labor is bad for us. As above, everyone benefits from cheaper prices. If China decides to cut us off from their electronic exports, that is their loss, and will cause our own electronics industry to have a sudden overnight Renaissance. However, replacing our own manufacturing industries with service industries is bad, and happens as I've said because of minimum wage laws and excessive taxes/regulation.

Let me assume that various of your complaints are valid. But it seems to me
that the solution is drastic ( radical ) redesign of the Fed, not junking the Fed.

The Fed represents to me the power of government to steal value from its constituents without direct taxation, allowing government a limitless supply of money to fund its agendas, including unjust wars, which would otherwise be limited by citizens' willingness to pay for it. It represents the power of financial special interests to receive favors and special treatment at the expense of everyone else.

I am of the opinion that what we need is not more government, but more choice. More freedom to spend the fruits of our labor on what we decide. Less taxpayer subsidies (though direct taxation and inflation; through direct subsidy, government guarantees, price-fixing, and tariffs) for special interests. Less government meddling in the economy, which causes false economic signals, which causes malinvestments, which causes asset bubbles and depressions, and vast amounts of underhanded theft from the middle and lower classes through resultant re-inflation and government bailouts.

If it is not yet clear, I am not a fan of the Federal Reserve system. :)

Also, if this debate is becoming too much off-topic, I would be glad to move it off-list.

-Kevin

On Mon, Dec 7, 2009 at 5:19 PM, <[email protected]> wrote:
Kevin :
Thoughtful critique. However, your assumption seems to be that laissez faire is the
font of all economic good and if only we got rid of the Fed , then Utopia
would be around the corner.
 
Let me grant the worth of some of your arguments. Among other things the Fed
has the severe limitation that just about all it can do is tinker with monetary policy.
The result is the "hammer problem." When the only tool you have is a hammer,
all problems look like nails.
 
Trouble is, our economy, like all advanced economies, is multi-dimensional, a fact
that laissez faire theory doesn't really allow for. Smithians assume an "innocent marketplace"
when pure competition not only can exist but necessarily will exist   -as long as the
big bad government keeps out of things.
 
This model has never been true and can never become true.
 
Too many special interests.
Too much unfair competition, the equivalent of a butcher with his thumb on the scale.
Too many outside players  -multinationals and foreign gvts-  who could care less
  about our rules or priorities.
And much more.
 
One problem cannot be attributed to Smith himself, since he wrote a whole book
about one of the issues you raised, moral hazards. Essentially he said that unless
a society has a strong moral culture the economy will necessarily be cutthroat,
unjust, avaricious, and you name it.
 
And no-one can possibly say that American culture as it currently exists has a
strong moral foundation. If anything , it has an amoral foundation based on
unfettered greed, or at least obliviousness to the common good.
 
In other words, dismantling the Fed, I guess this is your underlying objective,
simply would create a new set of problems.
 
There still would be capital flight, either to Delaware or the Caymans, there still
would be shipment of jobs overseas, there still would be dangerous levels of
technology transfer, and much else. Worse, there would be additional woes
to contemplate, we can be sure of that even if exactly what is currently unclear.
 
After all, did the Fed create derivatives ? I don't think so, in fact the major headaches
caused by derivatives blind-sided the Fed, at least according to Greenspan.
In a previous decade the big issue was the wild gambling behavior of hedge funds,
also outside the purview of the Fed.
 
As well, the laissez faire values of the Bushies made sure that vital regulations
were junked so that margins could go to hell, basically, with leverage ratios
sometimes around 25 or 30, when 10 or so is the most that is prudent.
 
Then there is the anti-Fed, at least by way of metaphor, the international financial
system which moves trillions of dollars around, almost by the hour, chasing
fractional gains to be multiplied millions of times over to yield billions in
unearned profits. This destabilizes every nations' best efforts to create
sustainable economies for their populations.
 
Yet you seem to think such things can be ignored with impugnity.
 
As for "creative destruction," sure, Schumpeter is sometimes right, maybe
even often right. But ALWAYS right ? ? ?
 
Because of this False Absolute we now have a hollowed out  economy with
a way too large section of our industrial base now in China, Korea, Japan, and
elsewhere. And some industries are necessary for basic national security.
Let electronics vanish from the USA ?  We have almost done exactly that
and no longer produce TV sets, CD players, and you name it, or only produce
a fraction of what we could manufacture, because it supposedly is good
to maximize profits at the expense of just about everything else. But this
isn't sound economic policy, it is social and political irresponsibility.
 
 
 
Let me assume that various of your complaints are valid. But it seems to me
that the solution is drastic ( radical ) redesign of the Fed, not junking the Fed.
 
What needs to be junked is laissez faire theory  -which is more of a joke than
a serious theory of economics.
 
I'm reminded of an Anarchist ( of the peaceful variety , sort of Tolstoy-ist in character )
who I once worked for in New Mexico. His ideal world was the Old West when
people were free to be "completely independent " of government and, in the
process, could flourish as never before   --or since.
 
What self delusion.
 
Each inch of Western land was obtained by the government for them, was protected
for them by the military, and was serviced for them in large part because of
government policies, such as selectively selling public lands to RR companies
so that Western farmers and miners and ranchers, etc, could have access
to markets.
 
Were all government policies for the good ? Of course not. But the solution
is government reform, and we got plenty of that in the Progressive Era, under TR
especially, and later under FDR, and if things still were not optimal at least
there were some changes for the better --with the possibility for
future generations to take the reform process further.
 
Billy
 
 
============================================
 
 
 
 
 
Hi all, new to the list, and already being opinionated. :)

The author doesn't do a very good job of presenting the arguments of the "Fed bashers," so I thought I'd chime in. Those opposed to the Fed are opposed for three major reasons:
  1. Legality -- The Fed's position as a creator of fiat money that is not under the authority of any branch of government and can't be fully audited contradicts some language in the Constitution (art. I, § 8, cl. 5.; art. I, § 9, cl. 6.). This is perhaps the weakest of the three arguments, as all three branches of government violate the Constitution day in and day out and no one seems to mind.
  2. Morality -- The Fed is often said to be "waging a war against inflation," when in fact the Fed is the only possible cause of monetary inflation, as it controls the money supply. Inflation is precisely a sinister form of tax by which the Federal Reserve (by issuing credit and buying various instruments with money that didn't previously exist) steals value from its constituents' savings. The Fed thus discourages saving money, and (especially through below-market interest rates) encourages spending. Inflation is an invisible tax without representation, as long as Congress is not allowed any monetary power.
  3. Economic merit -- The strongest argument of the three. The Federal Reserve is the primary cause of the current recession, and by its very nature causes asset bubbles. It does this in two primary ways. It sets lower-than-market interest rates, which cause more borrowing to be done than would be done under a free-market system, causing malinvestment (as seen in the dot-com and real estate bubbles). Secondly, it implicitly guarantees debt, which creates moral hazard, allowing banks and other financial institutions to make investments that would not be possible without this guarantee--which again causes malinvestment and results in asset bubbles. The author actually praises the Fed for these flaws:
The Fed pumped out more than $1 trillion in new credit, created special lending programs to support faltering segments of the credit markets (commercial paper, money market funds) and rescued financial institutions, notably AIG, whose bankruptcy might have triggered a chain reaction of failures.

It's hard to imagine the kind of economic thinking that would see trillions of dollars of inflation and call that a good thing. Not to mention the government subsidy (with taxpayer money, through inflation) of segments of our economy that contributed to the malinvestment. In a healthy economy, dying industries must be allowed to die so that others that don't yet exist may be born (see horse-and-carriage argument).

Well, that turned into an essay. Sorry about that!

-Kevin

On Mon, Nov 30, 2009 at 10:52 AM, <[email protected]> wrote:
WPost
 
Fed 'reform' we don't want

By Robert J. Samuelson
Monday, November 30, 2009

Ever since its creation in 1913, the Federal Reserve has grappled with a daunting political contradiction. The Fed is charged with preventing the collapse of the banking and financial system, whose health is essential for the "real economy" of production and jobs. But financial bailouts usually occur when mistakes or misdeeds by bankers and investment professionals make them public pariahs. To do its job, then, the Fed protects -- or seems to protect -- an unpopular, disgraced and undeserving group. We are now witnessing this contradiction in full bloom.

The Fed has become a congressional scapegoat for assorted economic frustrations: 10.2 percent unemployment; expensive rescues of fragile financial institutions (AIG, Bear Stearns, Citigroup); outsize Wall Street bonuses; and the crisis itself. The denunciations transcend rhetorical outbursts. The House Financial Services Committee recently voted to require the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to "audit" the Fed's monetary policy -- its efforts to influence interest rates and credit conditions. In the Senate, Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Banking Committee, has proposed stripping the Fed of all powers to regulate financial institutions -- its actions to police lending and management practices. These powers would go to a new agency.

The Fed backlash is bipartisan. Rep. Ron Paul, a Republican and libertarian, proposed the GAO audit, which he sees as a first step toward abolishing the Fed ("End the Fed" is his latest book). Paul favors resurrecting the gold standard and combining it with private money; Wal-Mart could issue currency. His views are long-standing, principled -- and wholly impractical. Dodd, of course, is a Democrat. Much Fed-bashing simply indulges Congress's impulse to blame someone else for anything unpleasant.

Lost in this politically charged climate is the reality that the Fed, more than any other government agency, arguably stopped last fall's financial panic from becoming a global depression. The Fed pumped out more than $1 trillion in new credit, created special lending programs to support faltering segments of the credit markets (commercial paper, money market funds) and rescued financial institutions, notably AIG, whose bankruptcy might have triggered a chain reaction of failures. These were seat-of-the-pants responses, taken in the midst of crisis and pervasive uncertainty. We will never know what might have happened without them. The second-guessing is occurring now when there's less fear and more information.

What's also overlooked is that the Fed isn't the super-secretive, unaccountable agency of political stereotype. In 2009, Fed officials from Chairman Ben Bernanke on down have testified 32 times before congressional committees. The Fed makes detailed disclosures about its policies. After every meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the key decision-making body on monetary policy, issues a statement explaining why it has -- or hasn't -- changed its interest-rate target. Until 1994, there were no announcements after FOMC meetings. Economists and investors had to guess.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Fed's activities are already widely audited. Deloitte & Touche examines the Fed's financial statements, which are published. The GAO can audit many Fed activities, including its banking regulation and supervision of the payments system. What it's barred from auditing is the conduct of monetary policy, including relations with foreign central banks such as the European Central Bank.

Congress has so far sensibly put this off limits. "Audit" has a different meaning in the context of the GAO than in everyday usage. It means examine, investigate, evaluate and, often, criticize. It's not just crunching numbers. The GAO usually undertakes studies at the request of someone in Congress. This suggests that the GAO could be used to influence or intimidate the Fed through selective investigations, which would involve access to internal Fed documents and interviews with policymakers. The Fed might be pressured to finance government deficits or to adopt an "undue focus on the short term," Vice Chairman Donald Kohn testified before Congress on July 9. Historically, similar pressures have caused other central banks to unleash inflationary torrents of money, Kohn said.

This is not inevitable, but even the impression that the Fed's "independence" is compromised could perversely undermine confidence in the dollar, leading to higher market interest rates or a rapid fall in the dollar's foreign exchange value. Massive projected government budget deficits compound the psychological damage. Similar objections apply to Dodd's proposal to end the Fed's power to examine and regulate financial institutions. If this crisis teaches anything, it is that the Fed needs to know more -- not less -- about large financial institutions.

The Fed isn't infallible. Its mistakes contributed to the crisis. Its present low-interest-rate policy poses dangers of fostering inflation or new "asset bubbles." But the congressional Fed-bashing poses greater dangers. Ironically, the destructive remedies being peddled are part of "financial reform" legislation. If this is "reform," we're better off without it.


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