G wrote:
> Then please clear up for a novice why the markets, whether they be short
> term or long, would rise on a Bush win? (honest question)
Because that is what they expected. Those in the capital markets love
to see confirmation of what they thought would be true. If a wooden
doll ran for President and won, the markets would rise if Wall St
predicted it.
Furthermore, the weakening of the US dollar will increase profitability
of global companies like a Kraft, P&G, and GE because they get a nice
little bump when they convert EUROs to US Dollars for income statements.
You can expect the dollar to continue to be weak and the
multi-nationals to continue to come in with better then expected numbers.
As long as the decline of the US dollar is orderly, I don't see too much
of a problem. Maybe we can get some manu jobs back to the states.
> If its so painfully clear that Bush is heading the country for a fiscal
> disaster, why wouldn't the markets reflect that, as the fiscal intelligentia
> act on their fears?
It's too much gloom and doom. It will always be business as usual.
Gurss is always talking about the dollar's weakness and moving his money
into Canada or Europe. I think he is half-joking.
1) If you want large returns, the best time to have money in play is
during the times when everyone else panics.
2) What else are they going to do? You run a hedge fund with 500M. You
expect the market to crash sometime in the future. You can't wait until
it happens and miss all the positive returns. It's your job to navigate
through the tough times. That is how you earn your management fees.
Further more, you raised all that money and you are obligated to your
investors to participate in the markets.
When the market crashed in middle of 2000, all the fund managers were
still invested. They had to be. That is their jobs.
My preference was Kerry but I'm not anti-Bush. Kerry, having been
member of the Senate Banking Committee, is not a economic neo-phyte.
I'm a bit concerned with some of Bush's spending though. I'm also
concerned about Bush not listening to some of his advisers.
> Also, I think it was you who posted that interesting poll a few days ago
> that reflected a majority of the top 2000 investment guru's supported Kerry.
> However, what I found interesting in that poll, was that the percentage of
> these people who said the most important topic to them was
> terrorism/security/Iraq was comparable to the percentage who indicated the
> economy.
>
> So I'd ask you this, can we be sure that Buffett and Bogle supported Kerry
> because of the economy???
>
I don't know about this.
--
2004 - The year $184M couldn't buy a pennant.
Ron Artest: Extremely flawed, very accidental, semi-martyr
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