> Sam wrote: > your wrong most of the time. Let's define my view and then you can show me my errors. Here is my analysis:
Our current economy heavily rests on consumers. Consumers heavily rely on debt and when they near max out, companies rely on debt by selling stuff for a loss or near loss. That type of economy is not sustainable and will soon end. My prediction is that it will begin to end even before the big social program debts his us. In fact it may be beginning now ... Below please find a tidbit from today's WSJ that I believe is a harbinger of my prediction. Given that you think I'm wrong please provide your long term estimation and how this tidbit supports your view. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- But debt and the noninflation inflation that everyone but government officials seems to be experiencing could start to take their toll. The Fed's tightening campaign -- 2.5 percentage points and continuing -- and gasoline prices are finally squeezing consumers. According to Northern Trust economist Paul Kasriel, growth in consumer spending should slow this year, adjusted for inflation. Measured from the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter, such spending should be up 3.2%, compared with the 3.8% logged last year. How overstretched is the American consumer? New borrowings as a percent of disposable income reached a post-World War II high of 12% in the first quarter. And despite the rapid increase in housing prices, the value of household debt has been increasing at a faster pace than household assets. Certainly investors in retailing stocks seem to think ominous signs abound. The Dow Jones U.S. retail index has crumpled 6% this month. Wal-Mart Stores stock is at a 52-week low -- and has been flat for just under 6½ years now. Also, General Motors said yesterday that it will continue "Operation Desperate Unload" -- officially dubbed the "Employee Discount for Everyone" program -- through the end of September. As with past discounting schemes, GM is reaping diminishing returns the longer it lasts. In June, the first month of the giveaway, sales were up a blockbuster 42%. The second month, it was a giddy 20%. But Merrill Lynch forecasts a year-over-year decline of about 10% for GM in August. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Discover CFTicket - The leading ColdFusion Help Desk and Trouble Ticket application http://www.houseoffusion.com/banners/view.cfm?bannerid=48 Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:171203 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
