Wendell Mottley's stellar presentation at the recent Petroleum
Conference in T&T focused on the role (reviewed briefly below) that
President Chavez appears to be carving out for his country, Venezuela.
That country, now with a growth rate of five per cent, earns annually
some US$26 billion in petroleum revenues compared with T&T's US$2
billion.

Chavez has broken the control that FDI had on his country's natural
resources and is directing these oil earnings on structuring domestic
and international policy. Chavez has been concentrating at home on
land redistribution, large investments in health, education,
infrastructure (e.g. water distribution) and agriculture. But the
President understands that with US political policy against him, he
had to take this political and economic revolution, the "Axis of
Good", into the region.

For example he has signed with Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and
Argentina, PetroSur, a joint venture to execute oil projects in the
countries, agreed to supply Uruguay with one million barrels of fuel
per month, similar to PetroCaribe, in which 75 per cent is to be paid
in 90 days and the rest over 15 years. Some payment can be made in
cattle and other food products.

Also, Chavez has bought out US$1.6 billion in Argentina's government
bonds such that that country could entirely repay the IMF, purchased
US$25 million in defaulted Ecuadorian bonds and appears to be
supporting the idea of the 'Bank of the South' that would make loans
in competition with the IMF without the Washington conditions.

Further, Jamaica sought finance from Venezuela for several projects.
Mr Mottley postulated that Chavez did not offer T&T better conditions
to enter PetroCaribe since he may be unhappy with T&T's model of its
energy sector which relies largely on FDI, one that contrasts with the
tight control Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia exert on their petroleum
resources.

Though Chavez exports to the US, he has gas development plans that
include a pipeline going West and South to provide gas for the
development of regional economies. One can be very sceptical that
Chavez will allow the cross border drilling for gas or even LNG in T&T
using Venezuelan gas under the present marketing conditions of T&T.

What Mr Mottley did not address are the implications for the FTAA
given the creation of the Axis for Good in the region. For example on
his arrival in Argentina on November 4, 2005 to participate in the
Fourth Summit of the Americas, Chavez said that the FTAA is dead. This
attempt to resurrect the FTAA talks (stalled now for the last two
years) failed to resolve the key differences over how to create a
hemisphere-wide free trade zone, amid violent anti-US protests.

Three factors are of concern, viz, the US and Brazil have made little
progress in resolving key negotiation issues, member governments have
shifted their focus from the FTAA to bilateral and multilateral
agreements and a new negotiating strategy and co-chairmanship by US
and Brazil have so far failed to push progress.

In particular, Brazil complained that the US market-access offer to
the Mercusor partners provided least favourable market liberalisation
for consumer and industrial goods and agricultural products, as well
as, the group's most competitive products are in a class with the
longest phase-out period for tariff elimination. A bone of contention
is the agricultural subsidies of the US that contribute to making the
region's products more uncompetitive. On the other hand Brazil et al
are concerned about the rules on such topics as services, intellectual
property rights, investment and government procurement. In certain
cases these rules go beyond the WTO commitments.

Simply to keep the talks going the Miami ministerial meeting in
November 2003 agreed on a substantial shift from the previous vision
of the FTAA as a single undertaking applying to all countries to that
of a two-tiered agreement with varying degrees of national commitments
to cut barriers and abide by trade rules. Even with this concession
the meeting in Argentina in November 2005 failed. The FTAA appears to
be collapsing and Chavez is using his huge war chest of petrodollars
to drive the other nails in its coffin as he builds a trade area in
the South, while our Minister of Trade keeps hoping that T&T will be
chosen to host the FTAA HQ/tomb.

The choice before us is whether to ignore these political-economic
manoeuvres in the region and continue our merry way of liquefying gas
and exporting it North with dubious financial returns or move towards
closer collaboration with this new move in the region. Ignoring
PetroCaribe is to our detriment but involvement in the Axis of Good
carries its own political risks.

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