I'm proud to report that there again reasons for us fiscal
conservatives to fret about a recession.  Remember that the working
theory for continued growth was that as the housing bubble deflated,
business spending would increase.  Well ... it ain't.

-------------------
Durable goods take surprising tumble
Excluding transportation orders, index falls 1.1 percent in second
consecutive monthly drop, Commerce Department says.
December 22 2006: 8:49 AM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- New orders for U.S.-made durable goods rose a
larger-than-expected 1.9 percent in November on aircraft sales, but
fell when airplane orders were stripped from the data, a government
report showed Friday.

Excluding volatile transportation orders, which are heavily skewed by
aircraft, durable goods orders fell surprisingly by 1.1 percent, a
Commerce Department report showed. It was the second consecutive
monthly drop in durables orders excluding transportation, and the
fourth decline in the last five months.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting durables orders to rise 1.5
percent overall and also to gain 1 percent when transportation orders
were stripped out.

Transportation equipment orders rose 9.4 percent in November,
bolstered by a 7.2 percent gain in civilian aircraft orders and a 40
percent surge in defense aircraft and parts.

Excluding defense, orders rose 0.6 percent, slightly weaker than
analysts' expectations of a 0.7 percent gain.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for
business spending, dipped unexpectedly by 1.4 percent. Analysts had
expected a rise of 0.9 percent.

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