Damn you talk a lot Jim! So many things to respond to... and yet it's time for me to leave work ;)
One note - I would think that an HD-DVR, capable of record two high def shows at the same time, while watching a third (already recorded) would have enough power to handle a web browser and the flash player and such. But I'm not the hardware geek that my family things I am, so I couldn't really tell you! On 4/9/07, Jim Davis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > -------- Original Message -------- > > Subject: Re: Is "Microsoft" Dead? > > From: "Rick Root" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > > On 4/8/07, Jim Davis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > I think we're still in the infant stages of "Web 2.0" apps... I > > wouldn't be surprised at all to see web-based versions of Office > > applications start to take hold in the next 5 years. Maybe not in the > > business market, but who knows. > > Exactly - I'm not saying that it won't happen; but I'm also not saying that > it will either. > > Right now I don't think that the value or functional propisitions are there. > That will change (if we keep moving on this path) but we'll see how far they > come. > > No matter how it turns out we're definately living in interesting times. > > > > Except for FireWire you've just described a PS3 perfectly. ;^) > > > > Granted, but price and availability is the issue there. For something > > like this to work, it can't be that expensive. > > How expensive is "expensive"? > > The Wii is $250 - which is cheaper than WebTV was - and you get game. ;^) > > The PS3, granted, is defiantely pricey at $500, but again people are going to > buy that for other reasons as well. > > I think that game consoles are good benchmark: the costs there tell us what > people are willing to spend for essentially non-essential devices > (entertainment devices). Granted they're still expensive (only a fool or a > king would say that they're cheap), but their success shows that people are > willing to spend that much - at least every once in a while. > > > What I'd ultimately like to see is the ability to tack a keyboard and > > mouse onto my digital cable box... switch to channel 999 or whatever, > > and surf the web. > > That might happen - but I doubt it will be what you want. For me, at least, > I want a "real" web experience. I want full Flash, JavaScript (AJAX) and > security. > In other words I'd be interested only in "high-end" browsing. I want the > kids to be able to play Flash games and have no interest in "low end" > experiences. A lack of plug-ins (Flash, audio, video, etc) or plug-ins with > so little memory that most sites won't load (as with the PSP where many Flash > movies won't load) has been the norm. Those compromises stem directly from > the hardware. > > Cable boxes have potential (MS is dumping millions into building that > market... trying to "innovate" as Gruss would say ;^) ) but right now are > way too limited. They've great at decoding encrypted video (there's a chip > in there for that) but the general purpose OS side of things is woeful. Sub > 486 class processors, miniscule RAM and no local storage to speak of > (although DVR boxes could probably use their hard disks). > > Look at the interface provided by your cable box now - look at the speed of > it, the complexity and the responsiveness: that's what these things are > designed to handle. They can handle more - but just not that much more. > > > You mention that the game console is the likely candidate for what I'd > > like to see, but game consoles are expensive. The digital cable box > > is nearly as likely, because it's essentially a computer anyway. > > Heck, my Scientific Atlanta HD-DVR cable box has USB ports and > > everything. > > True - but that's a superficial similarity. That box doesn't have a > processor or memry capable of handling even simple web pages. > > > I think the cable box is just as likely, but I'm not sure cable > > companies are that innovative. > > More specifically Cable Companies are too cheap. As they stand Cable Boxes > (assuming HD and DVR) cost the companies hundreds of dollars each. They pass > that (huge) cost off to us but even then they don't see a profit on boxes > until after several years of service. Enhancing the box for full Web > functionality would add significantly to the costs - and to the > time-to-profit. > > The costs go up even more for other devices - a high-end TIVO still costs in > the $500 range. > > I'm not saying that nobody will do it - but cable companies are notouriously > anti-new technology. > > That said even current boxes may be able to support a limited terminal > server. With fiber-to-the-home it may make more sense to support something > like that. Instead of your cable box runnng "Nick.com" your cable box would > be connecting to a remote virtual machine and piping it's output to you. > Even a small server farm could support hundreds of virtual browsing sessions > so the cost wouldn't be THAT bad. > > That could definately be a way to support high-end browsing on low-end > equipment. > > And of course as things get cheaper cable boxes could definately get more > complex and feature-rich. One issue there however is that the future is > pushing (via CableCard and broad industry standardization like IPTV) a > cable-boxless future. Instead you get an encryption card from your > cable-company that plugs into your TV or your TIVO or whatever. > > Sony's been dreaming about this world for a while: this is why they still > keep talking about Cell Chips in TVs and Stereos and so forth. In their view > your TV should provide Web Browser, media extender functionality and > entertainment hub capabilities. I'm not sure if they'll ever get there but > some of the new stuff (like the Bravia line of TVs) is interesting - hugely, > vastly, amazingly expensive - but interesting. ;^) > > Jim Davis > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Upgrade to Adobe ColdFusion MX7 The most significant release in over 10 years. Upgrade & see new features. http://www.adobe.com/products/coldfusion?sdid=RVJR Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:232158 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
