> -----Original Message----- > From: Ian Skinner [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Tuesday, June 10, 2008 11:20 AM > To: CF-Community > Subject: Re: Like Big Stuff?
[Replaying to a comment about IBM's new supercomputer.] > I saw a show talking about systems like this. That, if performance > grows as it has to date, this system will exist in a desk top by 2025. > > That is mind boggling thought to me. I'm not sure about that... Moore's Law is eking by now but the tricks used to deal with the real problem (that things can only get so small before we're dealing with essentially uncontrollable quantum effects) is already an issue. It's unlikely that, with anything like today's technology, you'll see something like that "on a desktop". (Of course we'll eventually transition from 2D lithography to something... else and then all bets are off, but it will stall development while the new technology has its kinks worked through.) But more importantly I'm not sure, even given advances in tech, we'll ever see this in our lifetimes (or, perhaps, at all). We're already to the point where the vast majority of computer users have more computer than they need. We're waiting for the network and each other - not our PCs. Yes, operating systems and office suites are becoming more resource intensive, but still aren't approaching what a modern PC can provide. The only segment that's clearly power hungry are 3D gamers. They're also the ones most willing to spend huge amounts to get "the best". Currently this means expensive base components with even more expensive dedicated hardware (video cards). I'm not sure if that "upgrade" model will continue however (especially through a fundamental technology shift) - we might see a convergence of PC gamer and console gamer into an upgradable, scalable console model for example. Instead of upgrading your "everyday PC" to be a gaming monster you might upgrade your PlayStation to be more powerful. But forgetting gamers for a minute I'm still not sure if things are going to NEED to get better in the performance space. In terms of usability we see this over and over. Things are introduced and are poor, barely usable and niche. They improve until they become generally usable, but still poor, but become good enough for general use. Then the technology advances to the point where it surpasses the need for most people and eventually this becomes cheap enough. Technology still advances, but anything "more" becomes niche and (because of low sales) tends to stay expensive. Monitors are a great example. The first monochrome monitors were low res, ugly and hard to read. Then things got better (color, high-res or, in the case of the NeXT Cube, a high-res grayscale monitor). They were still small and had room for improvement, but they were good enough to let the general public get some real work done. Things improved to the point where they passed the needs of the general user. They are available, but a 17-21" monitor (with something like 1280x1024 res) do everything that any general user could use. Larger monitors are available, but remain a niche because most people don't need them - the size has become a negative rather than a positive. I think the next big step for monitors (which will require a technological leap) is ultra-high resolution monitors: essentially a monitor with the "resolution" of paper (in other words 600-1200 dots-per-inch rather than the 72-90 that current displays have). This will be revolutionary (and without it there's just no chance, ever, for the "paperless office"). You can see similar trends in all interactive devices: mice, keyboards, laptops, phones, etc. It's less clear with something like "computing power" but you can draw parallels in the worlds of storage (hard drives are vastly larger than nearly all personal computer user care about) and gaming (the Wii holds just under 50% of the "current gen" gaming market but features decidedly last generation visuals... which are apparently "good enough" for most users). Of course something might come along tomorrow that pushes the need. Graphical operating systems pushed performance along 20 years ago and are still doing so (at least for the low end) today. But even the most eye-candy-riddled 3-D operating systems are easily handled by high-end PCs today. I think we'll see a greater trend towards connectivity: media centers, home control, family scheduling, etc. - but again there's nothing there that a modern PC (or, at most, a small network) can't really handle. (There are certain things that people "want" that are still far beyond us (even with supercomputer performance): artificially intelligent assistants/companions come to mind. Even natural speech-synthesis might fall into that category. Things like self-navigating cars are more approachable, but require political and infrastructure changes more than processing performance.) We come back to gamers... but as the gulf between what they want and what the general public needs widens more they'll be forced into a smaller and smaller (and thus more and more expensive) niche. It will quickly plateau to a balance point between publishers willing to invest in better games and producers willing to create better hardware vs. gamers willingness to spend and the size of population. I think you'll see more and more "smart" devices in the next decade (toasters with enough processing power to play "Doom!"), but I also think you'll see a slow-down in the performance increases of desktops due to lack of consumer demand. The big advances for the next 20 years, I think, are going to be in power reduction, cooling and so forth - not to make your desktop into "Road Runner" but to make your cell phone into your desktop. Sorry for the lecture... I'm on vacation and have some time to think. And I just find this stuff fascinating. ;^) What do you think? Have we hit a wall in user expectations/needs? What tasks will be driving the need for more raw processing power in the next decades? Right now, since it's 90 degrees out and I'm a fat man, I'd settle for a lawn mower with the brains to do things without me (I know they exist... but that's the kind of tech that I think needs to come down in price!) Jim Davis ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;192386516;25150098;k Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:261675 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
