** Private ** wrote:
> Judah wrote:
>> Its going to be some smart people going to work hard trying to get us
>> out of a mess.
>
> And, if they are smart, they'll conclude we need immediate emergency
> government spending on the level of the WWII.  Probably $1-3 Trillion
> right away.

You are focusing on just one of the underlying problems in the US. In a broader 
economic context, what the US needs is:
- an increase in demand for its products / services (to pick up for the falling 
domestic consumer demand);
- a decrease in consumer spending (consumer savings is still too low in the US);
- a  decrease in the trade deficit (trade balance is still short about 2 
billion per day);
- a decrease in government deficit (the government is 'crowding out' other 
debtors and foreign countries will want more risk premium to continue funding 
the US debt).


So really the only way to attack all of these problems at the same time is to 
'export the US out of the crisis'.

The typical reaction to a crisis makes that easier: when you are in crisis your 
currency loses value and your export increases. The problem in the US is that 
the trade deficit and the dependency on oil have grown so huge that a 
devaluation of the dollar has a much stronger effect on the inflation then in 
most other countries. So any devaluation of the dollar will immediately result 
in an increase in the price of oil that competing countries will feel much 
less. Due to this negative multiplier effect the change must me much more 
drastic then other countries in the same circumstances would have had to change.

> It may also mean buying into some industries - more than already has
> been done.  And probably getting a LOT more activist in the daily
> operations of business to prevent things like $40B in bonuses going to
> execs.
>
> At the same time we'll need to go global and so it'll require a LOT of
> diplomacy.

It does require going global, but not by diplomacy but by producing products 
the rest of the world wants to buy. 

Jochem


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