> RoMunn wrote: > break loose almost overnight. We seem to be past that probability, so now we > can get down to figuring out what the hell to do. >
Well we're not though; The danger last fall was *systemic* failure. The banks are still in deep shit and here's why: On the left half of the bank balance sheet is investor's capital, depositors capital, & all other assets On the other is expenses and liabilities. The problem is falling asset prices. In other words if a bank owed a house in March 2008 worth $500,000 that was an asset. Now let's say they loaned Joe Blow $500,000 plus interest to buy the house. They converted the asset into something even more valuable (due to interest), a loan. Joe defaults because he loses his job and didn't have any savings and is 120% in debt. If asset prices are rising, no biggie: you take the house back, resell it, and you're golden. But if asset prices are falling you're in trouble. You're out $500,000 and you get the house but it's now worth on, say, $380. But you still have to pay those operating expenses, etc so you need capital. Well, that's what the gov't did: gave the banks capital to continue operating. But that didn't fix anything; the banks are still just as close to collapse as they were before and maybe worse because other Joes are also defaulting as they lose THEIR jobs. And that $380,000 house is now down to $350,000 and falling. That's a zombie, and that's where we are today. Which is why I'm not as happy as you are that we own stock in companies with the same management that tanked them in the first place. The banks aren't innocent bystanders, they're the cause! Well Bush was the ultimate cause by not regulating them, and then they didn't regulate themselves, and then the consumers didn't regulate themselves. So here are the options: (1.) Continue to fund the zombies in the hopes that one day those asset prices will stop falling and start rising as the economy recovers. This takes more credit. Credit is what got us here in the first place. More fire is probably not a good cure for fire. But invest in a banks if you think this is going to happen. (2.) "mark to market". Let them fail. If that happens, there's systemic anarchy and probably failure. Not a good option. (3.) Buy up the toxic assets. The tax payers take the bad loans off the books of the banks. This is really just option #1+ for bankers. (4.) Nationalize. Eject the bankers, wipe out the stockholders, hammer the bond holders, restructure the toxic assets to make them as yummy as possible (on both sides probably), and then spin off the banks to private investors. This is the best case for the tax payer. The problem is getting the 100,000+ people to run the banks. Summary ----------------- We haven't solved anything and the banks are in just as much of a pickle as they always have been. We have held off systemic failure though. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:291791 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
