On Mon, Jul 20, 2009 at 6:56 AM, Gruss G wrote:

>
>
> * commercial real estate
> * credit cards
> * prime mortgages
> * business loans
>
> You can expect cycle 2 to begin in a month or two.
>

De-leveraging is a bitch. Commercial real estate is already getting hammered
in San Diego. High end properties are starting to go into foreclosure. I've
heard stories of people who were making $500K a year with $15K/mo mortgages,
spending $500K a year, who are now making $300K a year and still spending
$500K. Those folks are screwed.

The high end auto dealerships in town are also seeing huge returns of
financed vehicles - Bentleys, Ferraris, etc. The wannabe rich pretenders are
dropping like flies. Membership at my gym is down 25-30%. It isn't a cheap
place but it isn't a country club either. The Hyatt next to the gym has had
to cut summer rates from $225 last year to $105 (on Hotwire) this year to
stay booked in prime summer tourist season. Deflation, anyone?


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