Given the recent SOCUS ruling on election ads all bets are off as far
as i see. The massive impact of direct advertising by corporations
will just overwhelm anything else.

On Mon, Jan 25, 2010 at 1:47 PM, Judah McAuley <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Anti-incumbent mood seems to be the order of the day, though it is
> rather too early to know what's going to happen in November. Both
> parties, and definitely Congress, have very poor favorable/unfavorable
> ratings right now.
>
> People who voted for Democrats in the last election want to see the
> majority used to do *something*. Thus far that hasn't happened very
> much. People who didn't vote for Democrats last election don't have
> any good reason to reward them for their behavior thus far.
>
> It's a partisan atmosphere. People who are hard core Democrats or
> Republicans will be out to push their representatives in one direction
> or another. A lot of independents and less-political voters will be
> apathetic and not turn out or else vote against whoever is in office
> because they are sick of it.
>
> 2010 is a non-Presidential year which has lower turnout,
> traditionally, anyway. Add in a lot of unfavorable ratings for both
> political parties and I think you'll see a substantially lower turnout
> overall. Which means that the people who are going to win are the ones
> who are successful at motivating their base and getting them to the
> polls.
>
> Judah
>
> On Mon, Jan 25, 2010 at 10:31 AM, C. Hatton Humphrey
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> ...if voters feel the money was wasted, those currently in office
>>> (everyone, not just one side of the aisle or the other) should be
>>> concerned in the upcoming elections.
>>>
>>> http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/25/poll.stimulus.money/index.html
>>
>> Traditionally - false.
>>
>> That said, the recent elections seem to indicate that more (or perhaps
>> a different subset) of the population is paying attention to issues
>> and acting/reacting based on their beliefs.  If that's the case then
>> we may very well see a round of anti-incumbent elections in 2010 and
>> 2012.
>>
>> Hatton
>>
>>
>
> 

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