There's some good sense in that article. I have heard several people make the suggestion that we no longer have mortgage interest be deductible and those arguments make sense to me. Keeping on Geithner and Summers was a pretty poor decision as well, agreed. Many people on the left said as much at the time. The one statement about how unemployment is higher now than it was in 2008 and we have more debt is rather duplicitous though since Obama didn't take office until 2009 and unemployment peaked soon there after has come down since the application of the stimulus. Admittedly, it has plateaued at an unacceptably high rate. The economy is still quite fucked. The actual point he makes, however, isn't germane to the discussion. Overall, not a bad article, but the headline is not really supported by the content of the article.
Judah On Sun, Sep 26, 2010 at 5:05 AM, Jerry Barnes <[email protected]> wrote: > > Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse, `Black Swan' Author Taleb > Says<http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-25/-black-swan-author-taleb-says-obama-s-stimulus-made-economic-crisis-worse.html> > > > > U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration weakened the countrys > economy by seeking to foster growth instead of paying down the federal debt, > said Nassim Nicholas > Taleb<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb>, > author of The Black Swan. > > Obama did exactly the opposite of what should have been done, Taleb said > yesterday in Montreal in a speech as part of Canadas Salon Speakers series. > He surrounded himself with people who exacerbated the problem. You have a > person who has cancer and instead of removing the cancer, you give him > tranquilizers. When you give tranquilizers to a cancer patient, they feel > better but the cancer gets worse. > > Today, Taleb said, total debt is higher than it was in 2008 and > unemployment is worse. > > Obama this month proposed a package of $180 billion in business tax breaks > and infrastructure outlays to boost spending and job growth. That would come > on top of the $814 billion stimulus measure enacted last year. The U.S. > governments total outstanding debt is about $13.5 trillion, according to > U.S. Treasury Department figures. > > Obama, 49, inherited what the National Bureau of Economic Research said this > week was the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression. Even after > the stimulus measure and other government actions, the U.S. unemployment > rate is 9.6 percent. > > Governments globally need to cut debt and avoid bailing out struggling > companies because thats the only way they can shield their economies from > the negative consequences of erroneous budget forecasts, Taleb said. > > Errant Forecasts > > Today there is a dependency on people who have never been able to forecast > anything, Taleb said. What kind of system is insulated from forecasting > errors? A system where debts are low and companies are allowed to die young > when they are fragile. Companies always end up dying one day anyway. > > Taleb, a native of Lebanon who gave his speech in French to an audience of > Quebec business people, said Canadas fiscal situation makes the country a > safer investment than its southern neighbor. > > Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the > Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until > at least 2014, the countrys finance department said in March. Canadas > ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. > ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the > department said, citing IMF data. > > I am bullish on Canada, he told the audience. I prefer Canada to the U.S. > or even Europe. > > Mortgage Interest > > Canadas economy also benefits from the fact that homeowners, unlike their > U.S. neighbors, cant take mortgage interest as a tax deduction, Taleb said. > That removes the incentive to take on too much debt, he said. > > The first thing to do if you want to solve the mortgage problem in the U.S. > is to stop making these interest payments deductible, he said. Has someone > dared to talk about this in Washington? No, because the U.S. homebuilders > lobby is hyperactive and doesnt want people to talk about this. > > Taleb also criticized banks and securities firms, saying they dont > adequately warn clients of the risks they run when they invest their > retirement savings in the stock market. > > Have Fun > > People should use financial markets to have fun, but not as a depository of > value, Taleb said. Investors have been deceived. People were told that > markets go up regularly, but if you look at the last 10 years thats not > been the case. The risks are always greater than what people are told. > > Asked by an audience member if returns such as those posted by Berkshire > Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett -- who amassed the > worlds third-biggest personal fortune through decades of stock picks and > takeovers -- are the product of luck or talent, Taleb said both played a > part. > > If given a choice between investing with Buffett and billionaire investor > George Soros, Taleb also said he would probably pick the latter. > > I am not saying Buffett isnt as good as Soros, he said. I am saying that > the probability Soross returns come from randomness is much smaller because > he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, he did > arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions. Buffett followed a strategy to buy > companies that had a certain earnings profile, and it worked for him. There > is a lot more luck involved in this strategy. > > Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion correctly > betting against the British pound. > > Talebs 2007 best-seller, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly > Improbable, argues that history is littered with rare, high-impact events. > The black-swan theory stems from the ancient misconception that all swans > were white. > > A former trader, Taleb teaches risk engineering at New York University and > advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based fund that > bets on extreme market moves. > > > > I have read "The Black Swan". It's a good book and still relevant. I > recommend it to anyone > > > J > > - > > We have too many elites in our party who look > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology-Michael-Dinowitz/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:327929 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
