I am not sure what I think of events in Egypt. When the military takes over from an elected government that's a bad precedent. The ppear to the moment to have the best of intentions however....and when half the country is demanding the government's ouster, hmm. If they want a vote of no confidence maybe they should be a parliamentary democracy.
On Wed, Jul 3, 2013 at 7:13 PM, Bruce Sorge <[email protected]> wrote: > > Here is the article in its entirety: > > The courts dissolved one house of parliament and rejected the electoral > law, requiring postponement of reconstituting it. The president rushed > through a draft constitution over liberal objections. Sixteen million > Egyptians have participated in protests against their government. Police > announced their unwillingness to protect government and Muslim Brotherhood > locations. Military leaders put in place by President Mohamed Morsy gave > him an ultimatum to accede to protesters demands and have begun taking > control of the media, ostensibly on behalf of the people. Egyptians fear > democracy so recently won is slipping from their grasp, and they are right. > > But -- especially on the holiday commemorating their own freedoms -- > Americans should not cheer the militarys return to power in Egypt. Fouad > Ajami, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, has > judiciously pointed out > parallels<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323297504578581321420344866.html?mod=hp_opinion> > between > the 1952 coup that brought Gamal Abdel Nasser to power and the expedient > support Egyptian liberals are now giving military intervention. The > Egyptian military is not a neutral arbiter; it spent four decades > repressing the Muslim Brotherhood. This is a sad assertion of unelected > power in a society struggling to establish the rules, institutions, and > practices of democracy. > > Morsy is not wrong to insist that he was legitimately elected and that his > opponents are seeking to achieve by mob rule what they did not win at the > ballot box. That many of Morsys problems are of his own making and that he > has governed badly do not refute his claims. He did not control the courts > disbanding the lower house of parliament; his urgency to redraft the > constitution is understandable given its importance for bringing forward > elections. He submitted the draft constitution to a public referendum, and > it passed. He is working in an environment in which the deep state is > threatened by both transparency and the rule of law. He has not had an > organized opposition or a definable leader to work with. He was not his > partys actual candidate for president (recall he was dubbed the spare > tire, when the electoral commission disqualified 10 candidates), so he may > have difficulty keeping loyalty in his own ranks. That he hasnt been brave > enough to tackle Egypts economic crisis without a legislature to share the > blame does not make him unique in the annals of governance. > > A recent, extensive Zogby poll in Egypt concluded that: > > - The two main Islamist parties (the Muslim Brotherhoods Freedom and > Justice Party and the Nour Party) appear to have the confidence of just > under 30 percent of Egyptian adults. > - > - The major opposition groups (the National Salvation Front and the > April 6th Youth Movement) combined have a somewhat larger support base, > claiming the confidence of almost 35 percent of the adult population, while > the remaining almost 40 percent of the population appears to have no > confidence in either the government or any of the political parties. They > are a disaffected plurality." > > This is not a country coming together. Egypt is a deeply divided society > with low levels of social trust (as is common for countries emerging from > authoritarianism). > > An elected president is now being forced by unelected military leaders to > schedule early elections -- not to create a parliament, but to bring in a > different president. The militarys plan is reportedly to dismiss the > Egyptian Constitution, dismiss the parliament, force the president from > office, and appoint the chief justice interim head of state. Mohamed > ElBaradei, the anointed liberal leader, pulled out of the 2012 presidential > election after failing to get traction. The militarys intervention has > established it as the rule-setter despite the fact that it did little to > set meaningful and politically salient rules when it held power a mere 13 > months ago. > > U.S. President Barack Obamas administration has achieved the hat trick of > alienating all factions in Egypt. It neither defended nor pushed out Hosni > Mubarak, thereby earning the embitterment of both the deep state that had > been Americas ally for 30 years and liberals who agitated against it; gave > the military a pass during the 18 months of its caretaking when policy > choices and governance rules might have been established; waived > congressional concerns limiting U.S. foreign aid; gave the elected > government too little support to have influence; was largely silent during > a crackdown on nongovernmental groups; and now condescendingly suggests > Egyptians would do better to politically organize than protest. > > That the Obama administration has managed to minimize U.S. influence at a > crucial time in Egypts democratic transition is, sadly, predictable. What > should have been done to help Egypt avoid this precipice? > > *1. Realize these guys are amateurs.* There is a tendency now to see the > past two years as an inevitable descent into authoritarianism, the carrying > out of a plan by the Muslim Brotherhood to ensure one man, one vote, one > time. And that may be true. The Brotherhood did double back on numerous > promises to share power, including not to run a candidate for the > presidency, given its dominance of the legislature. Its prospects are > doubtful of retaining power at the ballot box; there has been a precipitous > drop in Brotherhood popularity during its governance. But its also at > least as likely that the Brotherhood is lurching from crisis to crisis > without the experience or knowledge to make better choices. Societies > emerging from authoritarianism tend not to have a surfeit of capable > political leaders, and they have no experience building national political > consensus. The United States should be helping a broad swath of potential > leaders build the skills to govern. Egypt hasnt made that easy with the > crackdown on NGOs, but thats all the more reason to have a loud, public > defense of civil society and the building blocks of free societies. > > *2. Help the government end subsidies.* Egypts crisis is at least as much > an economic as a political one. The Egyptian government has been teetering > on the brink of default, unable to qualify for IMF support because of the > extensive government subsidies put in place 60 years ago and that the Morsy > government hasnt been brave enough to curtail. Qatar and Libya are all > that stands between Egyptian reserves and inability to pay the bills. > Government debt has grown by 25 percent in two years. The stock market is > down 14 percent on the year, sure to fall further. Fifty percent of > Egyptians live on less than $2 a day. Tourism has fallen off precipitously, > and Morsys decision to appoint as governor in Luxor someone involved in > the 1997 killing of tourists there will further worry potential travelers. > The IMF (rightly) insists on an austerity program of higher taxes and > reduced government subsidies, which the Morsy government hasnt enacted. > Morsy is right to fear public outrage, but wrong not to use his political > pulpit to build public understanding and support for sensible economic > policies -- which hardly makes them unique among even comfortably > established democracies. > > The United States provides $1.3 billion in military aid and $250 million in > economic assistance. Reversing that ratio would send a powerful signal to > the people of Egypt about U.S. interest in their success. Even more > importantly, the U.S. government should be helping Egyptians understand the > need for reduced subsidies, the importance of the government freeing up > business, and the essential contribution that transparency and the rule of > law can make. Needless to say, the United States is hardly in a strong > position to do so, given its own debt and recent trend toward crony > capitalism. Still, America should evangelize the value of vibrant economies > and build a foreign assistance program that matches its success with the > projects it supports. The United States could help provide the political > cover for Egypts government to take unpopular decisions, but it has not. > > *3. Emphasize checks and balances.* A crucial element of free societies is > competing power centers that limit the reach of the executive -- and > everyone else. Where was the U.S. government when Morsy moved against the > courts? As in Pakistan, the United States makes excuses for stability > that it would never tolerate in its own society. America needs to get into > the business of advocating vibrant, peaceful contestation among parts of > society, for that is the basis of building the civic virtue of political > tolerance and limited government. > > *4. Tie aid.* Obama piously claims his administration takes respect for > democracy and the rule of law into account in making decisions about U.S. > aid to Egypt. As journalist Eli Lake has pointed out, this is laughably > false<http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/02/obama-offers-a-revisionist-history-of-his-administration-s-approach-to-egypt.html>. > Both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her successor, John Kerry, > waived congressional restrictions designed to hold Egypts leaders > accountable. The U.S. Congress has a much better record than the president > at putting into place penalties for countries that dont respect minority > rights, religious freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. Rather than > skirt them, the administration should be working with Congress to > strengthen restrictions -- it can then have the pleasure of blaming > Congress, a strategy that historically works to great success in trade > talks. > > *5. Grow talent.* Part of the difficulty for societies transitioning to > democracy is that politicians are thrust into responsibilities far greater > than their experience may encompass. Even in repressive societies, there > are leaders, whether they lead religious communities, businesses, dissident > groups, or local governments. A major part of why the United States > stations diplomats in foreign countries should be to identify people of > promise who share Americas fundamental values and to provide opportunities > for those people to learn, grow, and become prominent nationally in their > respective countries. America is better at this than it realizes, but the > country underinvests in this. And the United States should get busy helping > Egypt develop leaders who can write laws, make political compromises, and > work within the framework of institutions to strengthen a democratic Egypt. > > And on the day Americans celebrate their freedoms, lets pay tribute to > Robert Becker, the National Democratic Institute employee who stayed in > Egypt to stand trial for advancing t > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Order the Adobe Coldfusion Anthology now! http://www.amazon.com/Adobe-Coldfusion-Anthology/dp/1430272155/?tag=houseoffusion Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:365226 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/unsubscribe.cfm
