Dear Jonathan

First of all, regarding propositions for new standard names: It is likely that 
as a result of this discussion, I will propose some new standard names and name 
modifiers. But please don't consider any of my ideas here as formal standards 
propositions.

Now, regarding probabilities of values within a given range:

When we say precipitation_probability we really mean

probability that each value will be within an absolute range given in variable 
x.

And when we say air_temperature_confidence we really mean 

probability that each value will be within a range given in variable x, 
relative to an air_temperature variable.

These are two very different things, and I believe that they should be treated 
as such. 

For air temperature, I believe that using bounds is not the way to go. There 
must be some kind of link to the reported temperature. Therefore, I believe 
that a variable air_temperature confidence with an extra dimension 
interval_of_air_temperature is better.

Regarding precipitation, bounds seem to do better. But I am not happy about the 
fact that there must be an artificial upper boundary for precipitation. Also, I 
am not sure if bounds are intended to be used with overlapping ranges? 

I am uncertain about what is best then – to use bounds with very high upper 
limit, or to use my original approach – to create a new standard_name: 
limit_of_precipitation_amount, and use it as a dimension to 
precipitation_amount confidence.

Any further thoughts?


-- Vegard


----- Original Message -----
Fra: "Jonathan Gregory" <[email protected]>
Til: [email protected]
Sendt: 2. desember 2011 11:10:20
Emne: Re: [CF-metadata] standards for probabilities

Dear Vegard

> A dimension (and variable) for specifying percentiles:
>         float percentile(percentile) ;
>                 percentile:units = "1" ;
>                 percentile:standard_name = "cumulative_distribution_function" 
> ; 
>         float air_temperature_percentiles(time, percentile, latitude, 
> longitude) ;
>                 air_temperature_percentiles:units = "K" ;
>                 air_temperature_percentiles:standard_name = "air_temperature" 
> ;

This looks sensible to me. Are you proposing cumulative_distribution_function
as a new standard name?

> ...an alternative for percentile could be 
> cumulative_distribution_function_over_realization.

Yes. That would be more informative, and therefore preferable, I think.

> Then, there is the problem of certainty that a temperature will be within a 
> given range.

Could you do that like this:

float air_temperature(air_temperature);
  air_temperature:bounds="air_temperature_bounds";
  air_temperature:units="K";
float air_temperature_bounds(air_temperature,2);
float air_temperature_confidence(time,air_temperature,latitude,longitude);
  air_temperature_confidence:standard_name="probability";

Then the air_temperature_bounds specify the ranges of air temperature for
which the probability is evaluated. probability would be a new standard name
as well. Again it could be made more informative as something like
probability_over_realization. This is instead of a standard_name modifier
and seems more consistent to me with the treatment of percentile. It is a
kind of transpose.

> Also, which I did not mention in the previous emails, I also wanted to 
> express the probability of at least x mm of precipitation.

This can be done in the same way as the probability of air temperature ranges,
with the upper bounds for precipitation ranges set high enough that they are
effectively infinite.

> When working with this, I found that expressing  percentiles and 
> probabilities as dimensions, instead of attributes, made the relationship 
> between them more intuitive.

I agree.

Cheers

Jonathan
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