http://www.randomhouse.com/book/176227/antifragile-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb
R.E. Boss (Add your info to http://www.jsoftware.com/jwiki/Community/Demographics ) > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto:chat- > [email protected]] On Behalf Of Raul Miller > Sent: zondag 23 februari 2014 16:59 > To: Chat forum > Subject: Re: [Jchat] games > > On Sun, Feb 23, 2014 at 9:46 AM, Björn Helgason <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Companies are shifting to all kinds of low costs. > > > > The companies selling services and/or hardware are hard hit. > > Yes, I think this is a direct consequence of child labor laws, and the > shift away from both farming and industrial economies. > > People have tried to solve these issues by enforced destruction of > things of value (to drive up demand), but I think that that's the > wrong approach. > > > It is very difficult managing a company with a shrinking market. > > Absolutely. That's the downside of sharing economies, for companies > that do not get it. > > > When people are let go the most productive go first. > > Not always, some will stay out of a sense of dedication. But yes, and > this has always been an issue. It's just becoming more obvious. > > > The company keeps on going with ever higher percentage of fat. > > Thus the phrase "corporate welfare". But it's not actually as bad as > it might first seem. > > > We are seeing a major change and many giants are suffering. > > Of course. > > ... (some quoted text deleted here) ... > > > In music etc the middlemen are feeling the heat but the musicians are > > better off and in more and better contact with their audience. > > > > Adverticing seems to be giving money in various ways but it is an difficult > > market. > > > > You do not want spam. > > I do not want too much, but we've developed pretty good immunities to > it. I expect this process to continue. > > > The social medias are in a strange situation. > > > > I am personally in favor of communication but hate spam and intrusive > > manners as many of them present. > > Most of it is very low quality, yes. But imagine if spam actually > contained useful information. It would still be annoying but ... not > all that different from past government efforts, at least in general > terms. > > > Games seem to be growing but it is ever harder to make money out of it. > > This has always been the way with entertainment industries. Anything > that focuses exclusively on popularity is going to have a lot of > people wanting to "make it big", trying and failing. > > Popularity can be important, and you need people who are interested in > being popular, but they need people to back them up. > > Meanwhile, if you want money you have to be willing to provide the > things that the people with money want. Similarly, if you want food > you have to be willing to provide the things that the people with food > want. Similarly for construction and plumbing and so on. > > Meanwhile... there's huge untapped productivity in the > poverty-stricken regions of the world. Many of those people are > smarter and more capable than many of those in the rich parts of the > world. So self-interested companies find themselves forced to tap into > that potential and at the same time struggle to maintain a > "competitive advantage", basically riding on the intersection of a > wide variety of problems. > > But what is wealth? You can sometimes approximate wealth by looking at > currency (or maybe cash flow) but it's actually quite a bit more > complicated than that. > > My favorite illustration of this issue is > http://arxiv.org/pdf/1002.2284.pdf - the presentation there is fairly > straightforward. But, restated: from a mathematical point of view, > high velocity markets are tremendously inefficient. I expect that this > means they tend to decouple value from currency. The result being that > successful companies need to provide value in other ways. You still > need currency - you can't avoid that - but it's by no means the only > way of judging wealth. > > (And it never has been.) > > What it is, though, is incredibly convenient. > > > I have been making money out of working with tourism and it seems to be > > growing like many entertainment industries. > > > > Fluctuates quite a bit. > > The best answer to fluctuations is probably diversification. Savings > helps also, of course. > > Here in the States, housing developments which offer sustainable > gardening are becoming more and more popular, especially with the > rich. There are a variety of reasons behind this. One of them is that > fresh food tastes good. But there's a lot of other reasons also. > Still, having backup systems is important, and even our economies and > our politics need backup systems. But you need a certain level of > failures before most people appreciate those systems. > > "Fortunately", there's never a shortage of people willing to break > things and to fail. That's something we have always had a huge surplus > of. The trick is learning from your mistakes and turning them into > something better. (Other tricks include making sure you are attempting > things you want to accomplish, and that you are willing to live with > the results of your attempts.) > > Thanks, > > -- > Raul > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
