On Mon, Aug 12, 2019 at 1:03 AM Donna Y <[email protected]> wrote: > Outperforming the market is next to impossible if EMH holds—might as well invest in passively managed vehicles. ???
But what does that mean? One interpretation: your trades outperform the market if your return from them beats the market average. But this would suggest that half of the trades outperform the market. Another interpretation: any trades you make are a part of the market so by definition are not outperforming the market. I imagine that there should be other interpretations. But none of the ones I have seen are particularly useful. (It might be nice to imagine that there's no need for expertise - no need for understanding what systems the market hooks up to, nor what roles they serve. But, generally speaking, relevant expertise should increase your odds of success.) That said, note that at the government scale the market is not and should not be a thought of as a close system. For one thing, the market ties into just about everything else. But, also, reserve system continually injects relatively small amounts of funds in certain areas and continually pulls funds from other areas, to stabilize the market. (Some people argue that this is unnecessary and bad practice. But it seems to me that it is needed and necessary, because value is transient (and depends on the person judging it) and money is used to represent value. (But of course, this can (and occasionally does) go very wrong, also.)) -- Raul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
