http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/955/re1.htm
9 - 15 July 2009
Issue No. 955
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
In the line of fire
Gamal Nkrumah examines political prospects in Somalia after Islamists issued
the government five days to surrender
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Click to view caption
Hardline Islamist fighters exchange gunfire with government forces in
Mogadishu. The fighting broke out in the south Mogadishu district of Karan this
week after Somali government forces tried to retake positions previously lost
to insurgent fighters of the Shabab Islamist movement and Hezbul-Islam opposed
to the Somali government. Nearly 250 people including senior Somali government
officials were killed and more than 200,000 Mogadishu residents have been
displaced in the last two months of intense confrontations between the
internationally recognised government and insurgents of Shabab and Hezbul-Islam
who control much of southern and central regions of the war-wrecked Horn of
Africa country
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"All on the apostate government soldiers who are in the frontline of the battle
to surrender to the Islamists and hand over all their weapons," Sheikh Mokhtar
Abu Zubeir, a leader of Shabab (Youth) or to use its proper name, the
Mujahideen Youth Movement, exhorted the troops of the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) of Somali President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed. The president
declined to comment, but the TFG Minister of Defence Sheikh Youssef Mohamed
Siyad Indhaade, while confirming the televised threat, insisted that the
government would not be moved by such "empty threats". He denied Shabab claims
that Somalis are embracing the Islamist militias ideology. He calmed the fears
of the TFG supporters and he claimed that the TFG troops have enough military
clout to trounce the Shabab's Islamist militias. "The government soldiers will
not lay down their weapons," the minister of defence boasted.
What is clear is that the militant Islamists of Somalia have moved deftly into
alignment with the country's people.
The problem with the Somali president is that he failed to make good on
pre-election hints of a compromise president. He should remember that the
success of his presidency is built on his reputation for restraint. He was one
of the leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, but he is now widely seen as
betraying their cause and indeed, the irony is that his fellow sheikhs are now
threatening him with prosecution by Sharia Courts (ICU). He needs, in any case,
to work with militant groups such as the Shabab if he is to remain a political
force to be reckoned with in the country. And, that now will not be easy.
The militant Islamists of Somalia have ossified into something of a xenophobic
sulk. The Islamists are about to take over. That could really break Somalia's
traditional ties with its predominantly non-Islamic neighbours -- Kenya and
Ethiopia.
Grim images of Black Hawk Down still haunt the American and Western psyche.
Besides, the administration of US President Barack Obama seems to have had a
change of heart as far as Washington's traditional Somali policy is concerned.
"Given the long-standing enmity between Somalis and Ethiopians, I will
encourage the Ethiopians not to re-engage in Somalia," John Carson, US
assistant secretary of state for African Affairs warned Ethiopia of interfering
in Somali affairs. Ironically, it was the US that had in the past egged the
Ethiopians on to send their troops into Somalia. US-supported Ethiopian troops
invaded Somalia in December 2006, ousting the ICU, which then included both
President Sherif Sheikh Ahmed and his arch-rival Sheikh Dhaher Aweis, the
outspoken militant leader of Al-Hizb Al-Islami. Ethiopia has no qualms about
crushing the Islamist forces in Somalia, but it has come to realise that it
cannot do so. When the ICU was being put together, the Ethiopians tried their
best to undermine the movement with the backing of then US administration of
George W Bush. Then the Ethiopians tried hard to garner support among
moderates. Today, the moderates among the Islamists have been extensively
purged.
The hatred for the Ethiopian invaders outweighed emotive and divisive issues
such as working with the Ethiopians to resolve Somalia's political problems.
Aweis has been embraced by many of his long-suffering people. His is not only a
personal victory but a huge stride forward for Somalia's militant Islamists.
They have come out decisively for democracy, Islamic-style.
The crucial problem at the moment is the humanitarian disaster that the war in
Somalia engendered. More than 3.5 million Somalis are threatened with famine
and destitution. The war resulted in a mass exodus from the Somali capital
Mogadishu and the humanitarian situation is worse in areas such as south
central Somalia where the Islamists hold sway. The autonomous regions in the
north of the country -- Puntland in the northeast and Somaliland in the
northwest -- are relatively less threatened by famine. The most pressing
problem at the moment as far as ordinary Somalis are concerned is to try and
feed the hungry, shelter the homeless, and bring back a semblance of normalcy
to the lives of the Somali people.
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