To try to wrap up some loose ends in this discussion, and since it's being discussed on other state birding listservs, let me just submit the following additional info. I'll also be happy (as I'm sure SeEtta is) to discuss off-list any questions that aren't specific to Colorado birds.
For those who want to delve deeper into this report and the issues it raises, a somewhat more detailed technical report (draft) has now been posted at: http://birdsandclimate.audubon.org/techreport.html This site also includes links to an accompanying table, 17 figures, and an appendix showing the results for all 305 bird species in the study. Although not yet published, the report has been peer-reviewed by scientists outside of Audubon. However, the somewhat less technical report that SeEtta gave the link to is probably more readable and has some graphs and maps that might be more helpful to most readers. As SeEtta emphasized, all of the results are based on a continent-wide analysis of population changes and movements over the 40-year period of the study (1966-2005). So any information given for birds that are found in Colorado is not reporting changes and shifts in Colorado but in North America as a whole. However, you will notice in each of the full reports some reference to more detailed info for California. This is the result of a study released simultaneously this week by scientists in California that has analyzed the geographic movements of birds within that state. Links to that report and other info are at: http://ca.audubon.org/globalWarmingReport.php As explained in the California report, combining bird observation data with GIS climate change data, "they have been able to create predictive models for 310 California species under different climate change mitigation scenarios," including "over 100,000 spatially explicit predictions of the past, present, and future distributions of California's birds." Colorado birders might find it interesting to be aware of this report because Audubon will be looking for opportunities to carry out similar analyses of bird populations in other states in the future. Ken Strom Audubon Colorado Boulder, CO ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Hugh and Urling Kingery Sent: Friday, February 13, 2009 9:29 AM To: Cobirds Subject: [cobirds] Ecological disruption Thanks to Adam Green, SeEtta Moss, and Tony Leukering for this ongoing and enlightening discussion about the National Audubon report of range changes as shown by CBC results. >From their informative emails I understand the NAS report a whole lot better >than I did from reading the (necessarily) abbreviated reports in the two >Denver newspapers. Now it's time to go to the source that SeEtta provided. [They also illustrate the difficulty of grasping any complex issue based merely on one or two newspaper reports -- whether scientific, economic, environmental, educational, or other.] Hugh Kingery --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Colorado Birds" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/cobirds?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
